Putin expected to intensify war in Ukraine despite US pressure for peace

Russian President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls to negotiate peace with Kiev, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters. They say recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports have reinforced their resolve to continue the war for now.

Two of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Putin was likely to escalate the conflict, now in its fifth year. One of them, who meets regularly with the Russian president, described the likelihood of an escalation in the coming months as "very high."

The statements were made after the President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated on Monday (6) that Putin wants to end the war and that a solution is "closer than people imagine". Trump spoke separately by phone with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. On Wednesday (8), he met with Zelensky during the NATO summit, when the Ukrainian leader said they discussed "ideas to bring peace". The White House did not respond to requests for comment.

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One of the people familiar with Putin's thinking said he had "stepped down" to achieve his main goal of conquering the rest of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, where Russian advances have slowed this year. The same source said Putin recently reprimanded a group of advisers who suggested a deal based on a ceasefire along the current front lines. The second source said Putin believes Russia will soon take control of Donbass.

In June, the Russian president publicly rejected a call from Zelensky for a meeting and a ceasefire.

"Russia is ready for a peaceful solution, but has sufficient capacity to act independently and continue the special military operation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a request for comment for this story.

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In response to a request for comment sent to Zelensky's office, a senior Ukrainian official said Kiev's intelligence reports from recent months indicate that Putin is preparing for new stages of war rather than peace, including new operations in Ukraine or a possible attack on another European country.

Some Western military analysts believe that Russia would need to compulsorily call up men of combat age to achieve its goal of conquering Donbass. This measure is politically unpopular, and Putin has avoided adopting it since the start of the war.

Russian military experts have increasingly publicly discussed an escalation of the conflict, including the possibility of attacking European targets such as NATO bases in the Baltics.

A step of this kind could bring Russia into direct confrontation with the US-led alliance, putting to the test NATO's commitment that an attack on one of its members is equivalent to an attack on all.

According to Jack Watling, from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defense and security think tank based in London, Russia could try to provoke tensions within NATO through isolated attacks, comparable to a recent Russian drone attack against Romania.

"The Russians would not be seeking war with NATO. But it could be used to divide the alliance over how to respond," Watling said. He added that rising tensions with NATO could help Putin politically justify a mandatory military call-up within Russia.

Rising costs of war
Repeated attacks on oil refineries, ports and fuel depots in Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine have caused severe fuel shortages, causing the impact of the war to be felt by millions of Russians. Putin's approval rating remains high, but recently hit its lowest level since the start of the war in 2022, according to a poll.

Ukraine's allies say there has been a change of momentum in the conflict.

Some argue for new economic sanctions to force Putin to end the war.

Ukraine's recent military successes, however, have left Putin angrier and even more determined to respond firmly, according to the source who meets regularly with the Russian president.

Last week, Russian forces launched two major drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, including the capital Kiev, killing dozens of civilians. Moscow said the bombings hit military targets.

In televised remarks last week before generals, Putin said Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure meant Russia would seek to conquer more Ukrainian territory along the border, beyond Donbass, to create a "security zone."

A former Russian Defense Ministry official, Andrei Ilnitsky, wrote in a column published June 29 in the Kommersant newspaper that an escalation of the conflict could begin with the destruction of 30 large industrial facilities in Ukraine, including a steel plant and the port of Odessa.

Russia has already caused widespread damage to businesses and ports across Ukraine. Production and exports have also been affected by repeated Russian attacks on energy facilities.

Ilnitsky added that the next phase could include attacks on NATO bases in the Baltics and Romania, as well as European Union facilities responsible for producing drones and long-range missiles destined for Ukraine.

When asked about Ilnitsky's article, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists this week that Russia needs to strengthen its own security and cannot "turn a blind eye" to the militarization of Europe.

A war of attrition in Donbass
Discussions about a possible Russian escalation occur amid slower troop advances on the battlefield, which raises the prospect that the conquest of Donbass will require a long time and a high number of casualties.

To date, around two million soldiers have been killed, injured or missing since the start of the large-scale invasion in 2022. Of this total, 1.4 million would be Russians, according to a recent estimate by the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Neither side officially releases data on military losses.

This year, Russian troops have struggled to advance along the 1,200-kilometer front line as Ukrainian drones neutralize Russia's numerical advantage in manpower. In recent weeks, the Russians have been slowly advancing on the city of Kostiantynivka, in eastern Ukraine, one of the cities in the so-called "fortress belt", an important defensive line in the Donetsk region.

On July 3, Putin claimed that Russian forces had taken Kostiantynivka. Ukraine denied the information.

The next day, during a telephone conversation with Trump, Putin tried to convince him that Russia will conquer the remaining fifth of the Donetsk region of Donbass, which still remains under Ukrainian control.

According to the source who regularly meets with Putin, the Russian president considers it essential to win this battle, stating that he "needs some kind of victory."

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Source: CNN