Analysis: Trump has no better option than negotiating with Iran

Donald Trump
EPA via BBC
Donald Trump's latest statements about Iran and the chances of a deal must be taken seriously, as he is, after all, the president of the United States.
Trump told the military alliance summit in Turkey: "I don't want to deal with them anymore, they're scum. You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people. And they're cruel, cruel people. violent."
"And if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I'm concerned, [the ceasefire] is over."
But would those be his last words on the matter? Certainly not.
Trump has repeatedly talked about the war and the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that is being negotiated. His words have swung between declarations of victory, threats of annihilation of Iranian civilization, and support for negotiations.
He later reiterated his latest threats, saying the US "will probably hit them harder again tonight."
The US's ability to strike Iran, causing major damage, is not in doubt. But what they failed to do was break the regime's willingness to abandon any of its fundamental demands, starting with control of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid their most recent verbal attack, implicit was their acceptance that negotiations would continue. They were suspended while Iran held the wake of its former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, assassinated by Israel and the US on the first day of the war, on February 28.
Trump was asked whether the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran - and, by extension, some of the United States' Arab allies in the Gulf - meant the end of negotiations between them.
Referring to his main negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, he said, "I don't care, they can negotiate. But I think they're wasting their time."
On the Iranian regime, Trump said, "They're a bunch of liars." fragile. A source among the mediators trying to make the negotiations work said the latest development is "a setback, without a doubt." The mood is considered "very tense."
This is a diplomatic way of saying that the events of the last few days present a dire scenario for negotiations between two powers that have no confidence that the other will keep its word if a deal is reached.
At the heart of the recent exchanges of military actions between Iran and the US is the Tehran regime's determination to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Its ability to block the passage of ships carrying essential items, including a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies, gives it strong leverage over the global economy.
It is a much more effective tool of pressure than the simple possibility of developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran will not agree to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz. That's why he's willing to risk the memorandum of understanding - full of potential concessions advantageous to Iran - to make clear there is no going back. It is willing to bet on an ongoing war to protect what it considers its strategic rights in the Strait.
The regime in Tehran has felt emboldened by the failure of the US and Israel to destroy it. The supreme leader's funeral demonstrated that the Islamic regime has a solid core of support.
The funeral of Iran's late supreme leader Ali Khamenei was held this week
NurPhoto via Getty Images via BBC
Domestic opposition has not disappeared.

But the regime's relentless use of force to suppress protests, killing thousands of people in January for demonstrating in the streets, has forced it to maintain a low profile.
If the escalation between the two sides can be stopped, mediators involved in the negotiation process believe it is possible to reach an agreement with Iran that allows ships to pass through the Strait. Such a deal would have to be part of a broader pact that unlocks Iranian assets held abroad, allows Iran to sell its oil and, crucially for the regime, recognizes Iranian authority over the Strait.
In return, Iran would have to accept limits on uranium enrichment, allow UN nuclear inspectors to return, and account for stockpiles of what Trump calls "nuclear dust" - in other words, uranium already enriched to levels close to those that could be used to make a nuclear weapon.
But the events of the last 24 hours show how difficult this will be.

Source: G1

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