Arko Advice: Governance in Brazil is heading towards maintaining tensions

A tense but functional governance and an increase in clashes with the STF is the most likely trend for Brazilian politics.

The assessment is from the Risco Brasil report, launched this month by political consultancy Arko Advice, WW's content partner.

For the consultancy, there is a "medium probability" that new phases of Operation Compliance Zero - the center of the Master Case - will contaminate electoral candidacies, especially for the Presidency and majority positions (Senate and state governments).

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Congress, with figures from the PT to the Bolsonarist right, passing through the center, must be the Power that will most absorb the wear and tear of the advancement of the Master Case.

Such a scenario could lead to a greater clash between the Presidency of the Republic, which holds the reins of the PF (Federal Police), and the Chamber and the Senate.

A "minimum agenda" would be preserved, but the government would find itself even more limited to what it could advance in Congress - starting with the proposal that aims to end the 6 to 1 work schedule, a priority of Palácio do Planalto.

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To this, looking at the post-election scenario, there would be added the impetus of the Bolsonarist right to have a majority in the Senate to be able to remove ministers from the STF (Federal Supreme Court) - due to links with the Master Case, but not only.

"The institutional crisis will already be defined in the first round (of this year's elections), with the composition of the Chamber and the Senate", highlighted political scientist Murillo de Aragão, CEO of Arko Advice, to WW this Tuesday (7).

"If Lula is re-elected and has to make a very serious fiscal adjustment, this will also cost him popularity and he will probably not have a base in Congress with the peace of mind to carry out these necessary reforms", he added.

Analysis: US geopolitical pressure is greater than Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro | WW

Source: CNN