Brazil's biggest risk is political-institutional, points out Arko Advice

The biggest risk vector for Brazil today is the political-institutional pillar, given the widespread impact on Brasília of scandals such as the Master Case.

The assessment is from the Risco Brasil report, launched this month by political consultancy Arko Advice, WW's content partner.

Since the launch of Operation Compliance Zero, investigations and suspicions in the Master Case have already targeted names linked to the centrão (Ciro Nogueira), the Bolsonarist right (Flávio Bolsonaro) and the PT (Jaques Wagner).

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In the STF (Supreme Federal Court), the conduct of the case report by André Mendonça is the target of public questioning by the Dean of the Court, Gilmar Mendes.

Added to this, come the relations between the Palácio do Planalto and the National Congress - the latter increasingly empowered by the control of budget amendments.

"I think there will continue to be a power struggle, institutional conflict, a mix of skills, a lack of limits, but, above all, a lack of vocation for dialogue", said Murillo de Aragão, CEO of Arko Advice, to WW.

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In the legislative field, Murillo de Aragão points out the focus that sectors - in short: the Bolsonarist right - have given to the Senate to obtain a majority in the House and move forward with impeachments of STF ministers.

Alexandre de Moraes, rapporteur of the criminal action that led former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to prison, is shrouded in suspicion about the Master Case due mainly to the contractual relations between his wife, Viviane Barci, with the former banker.

"The hope of a dialogue is that, if the fiscal situation becomes so bad, it will force political agents to sit at the table and look for a way out", added Murillo de Aragão, who is also a political scientist.

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Source: CNN