Analysis: US geopolitical pressure is greater than Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) participated, on Tuesday (7), in the public hearing held in Washington on the possible tariffs from the United States on Brazil.

The presence of the presidential candidate generated negative repercussions among representatives of the Brazilian productive sector present at the event, and sparked a new chapter in the political clash with the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Flávio's participation in the hearing lasted less than 10 minutes. Accompanied by his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), he stated that possible American tariffs have strengthened the Lula government instead of putting pressure on it, and linked the PT government to corruption, including citing the Master case.

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Speaking directly about the elections, Flávio declared that the political scenario "could be completely different in up to three months, with new negotiators on the Brazilian side".

Flávio suggests suspending tariffs until the elections
When asked by representatives of the American government about how Brazil could meet Washington's commercial demands without the use of tariffs, Flávio suggested that the Americans suspend any application of tariffs until the definition of who will be occupying the Palácio do Planalto in January 2027.

After the end of the hearing, when asked by the press whether he was asking for the tariffs to be postponed or canceled, Flávio was categorical: "No, cancellation. I don't want Brazilian tariffs. The only one who wants tariffs is Lula."

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Reaction from the productive sector and criticism of Flávio's stance
According to the director of Journalism at CNN in Brasília, Daniel Rittner, who spoke throughout the day with people present in the audience, the reception to Flávio's speech was largely negative among representatives of the productive sector.

"What they complained about a lot is that everything was in line with arguing in favor of sector exclusions, which seems like a much more viable path than ending up undermining the pricing thesis", explained Rittner.

According to him, Flávio's speech "completely diverged from the entire line of argument that was being put forward", by focusing on corruption, the electoral process and Brazilian internal politics. "The productive sector, which has a thousand complaints with the Lula government, expected a different stance from a candidate that they could embark on," he added.

Geopolitics enters the electoral arena
Murillo de Aragão, political scientist and CEO of Arko Advice, highlighted that, for the first time in recent elections, the international issue has become a relevant part of the Brazilian electoral debate.

"No other recent election, especially during redemocratization, has had such a huge influence on geopolitics," he said. For the political scientist, the tariff issue may not have much direct weight for ordinary voters, but it "disrupts the candidates' narrative".

The CEO of Arko Advice considered that both Lula and Flávio could be harmed by the issue: while Lula could embrace the theory of sovereignty, opponents could argue that this stance harms the economy due to the lack of negotiation.

CNN anchor Thais Herédia drew attention to the issue of the legitimacy of political leaders in the face of the scenario. She questioned the legitimacy of an Itamaraty that, according to her, has been adopting an unusual political vocabulary - such as the use of the term "traitors to the country" - and statements about the risk of American military intervention in Brazil, later denied by Marco Rubio, American Secretary of State.

The Brazilian military, according to Herédia, also reacted, saying they did not see such a risk.

Uncertainties about the opposition's foreign policy
Daniel Rittner pointed out another source of uncertainty: at the hearing, Flávio was seated between Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) - who had already been nominated by him as a possible chancellor - and the former director general of the WTO (World Trade Organization) and former ambassador Roberto Azevêdo, a figure identified as one of the most qualified names for the foreign affairs portfolio.

"Who will be in charge of foreign policy? This is also a very legitimate question and it seems to me that it is harmful for a foreign investor", he stated. Thais Herédia added that Flávio's campaign even erased Eduardo's figure in published photos, "because they know she is toxic", given that Eduardo supported the tariff the previous year.

Elections approach amid polarization and scandals
With the first round of elections scheduled for October 4, Aragão outlined a worrying scenario for the electoral process. In addition to the continued polarization and high rejection of both candidates, he highlighted that scandals such as the Master case and the INSS case will continue to generate speculation and leaks throughout the campaign.

"We are experiencing an election that somewhat repeats the situation of the last election, with both candidates receiving very high rejection", he assessed. For Aragão, the country lives in what he called the "Republic of Attention", in which "everyone fights for attention and to get attention, each one shouts louder than the other", resulting in a "very superficial" and unpropositive election.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN