Oil rises and bonds fall as attacks resume in the Middle East

Oil prices rose and government bonds were sold this Wednesday (8), as the resumption of clashes in the Middle East and United States sanctions on Iranian oil threatened the ceasefire. At the same time, stock markets took a breather after the strong rise in shares linked to artificial intelligence began to lose momentum.

Brent oil futures rose 2% to US$75.60 per barrel. The value is still well below wartime peaks, when it topped $120, but it was enough to put pressure on the bond market by raising inflation risks, especially as months of conflict reduced global inventories.

"Obviously the market doesn't like these attacks... but we're not in a widespread panic scenario yet," said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington.

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The US strikes represent the latest challenge to last month's peace deal and have targeted air defense systems, coastal surveillance equipment and drone launch sites, a US official told Reuters. The Iranian military command promised a "devastating response."

Washington also decided to withdraw a concession that allowed Iran to sell oil on the global market, a measure that, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, violates the agreement signed to end the war.

Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds - which rise when prices fall - rose about three basis points to 4.565%, the highest level in a month.

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"Just when we thought geopolitical risk premiums were behind us... we were reminded that this peace deal is still a work in progress," said David Chao, global Asia-Pacific strategist at Invesco in Singapore.

"I think that, at current levels, Brent is still trading without incorporating part of the new tension escalations in the Middle East."

Data released this week showed that US Strategic Reserve oil inventories fell to their lowest level since 1983, leaving markets more vulnerable to future supply shocks.

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar, which had retreated after reaching recent highs, gained strength again. The American currency pushed the euro back to just above US$1.14 and surpassed the 162 yen mark, increasing the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.

The New Zealand dollar rose around 0.5%, to US$0.57, after the New Zealand central bank raised interest rates, as widely expected by the market.

Asian stock markets tried to remain stable throughout Wednesday. Gains in Hong Kong helped MSCI's main index of Asian shares excluding Japan remain stable, while the South Korean market, heavily concentrated in semiconductor companies, fell 1.5%.

Overnight, the Nasdaq broke below its 50-day moving average after the market's negative reaction to Samsung Electronics' robust results cast doubt on the continued strong appreciation of artificial intelligence stocks.

Samsung projected a profit 19 times higher, but its shares fell 7% this Wednesday. Caution spread across global markets and led the Philadelphia Semiconductor index to fall 4.6%. Later, Samsung shares narrowed losses to about 3%.

"Short-term profit-taking in long-term winning stocks, especially linked to the AI theme, appears to be a global movement," said Sara Perring, head of cash equity sales for Asia-Pacific at J.P. Morgan.

"According to the J.P. Morgan research team, we should expect elevated volatility and continued selling by foreign investors in the South Korean stock market in the near term.

We continue to see opportunities to increase positions in artificial intelligence companies, sector-related businesses, assets benefiting from the wealth effect and financial institutions, given our constructive vision for the long term."

Source: CNN