Analysis: "They are scum, sick people," says Trump about Iran

During the NATO summit held in Turkey, Donald Trump branded Iran "evil, sick people" and called the country "dirty players" for attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The statements came amid signs that the preliminary agreement reached between Washington and Tehran is on the verge of collapse.

CNN International analyst Lourival Sant'Anna assessed the scenario cautiously, ruling out an immediate escalation to total war.

"Our base scenario has always been a slow, gradual normalization and under continuous stress", he stated. According to him, both the United States and Iran have structural political and economic reasons to pursue this normalization.

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Military limitations and stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz
Sant'Anna explained that the objective of the American offensive is to degrade as much as possible the Iranian capacity to attack ships traveling through sea lanes.

However, this degradation capacity is limited, as the United States does not have the political conditions to land troops on the cliffs and cliffs on the coast of Iran, where missiles and drones used in the attacks are installed.

"There would be a huge death of American soldiers and this is politically unsustainable", said the analyst.

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On the other hand, Iran seeks to establish a status quo in the Strait of Hormuz that is considered unacceptable by both the United States and international law and the global economy.

According to Sant'Anna, there is a negotiation conducted through arms, in which Washington tries to reduce Tehran's demands for control of the maritime passage. "Iran has a high tolerance for pain and has geography in its favor," he highlighted.

Electoral impact for Republicans
The analyst classified the situation as "politically disastrous" for Republicans, as it touches on two central points.

The first is the economic issue: pressure on the price of oil and other commodities that transit through the Strait of Hormuz increases inflation and the cost of living in the United States, considered the critical point of the recent elections in the country.

The second point is the failure to fulfill a campaign promise. Trump has built his political trajectory since 2016 on a promise not to engage in distant wars and regime change, especially in the Middle East.

"There is immense discontent, not only among the American population, but within the Republican Party," said Sant'Anna.

According to him, Trump faces enormous difficulty in getting out of the situation honorably, since Iran only accepts unblocking the strait under its own terms, which remains unacceptable to the Americans.

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Source: CNN