Airbus reduces aircraft demand forecast and blames war on Iran and trade tensions

A350-1000ULR plane at the Airbus factory in Toulouse, France
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Airbus announced on Wednesday (8) a 1% cut in its forecast for demand for passenger aircraft across the industry for the next 20 years.
The measure comes after the war with Iran and trade tensions slowed the strong recovery in airline activity since the pandemic. Covid-19.
The world's biggest planemaker said it still expects strong demand for jets, led by Asia, which is expected to account for about half of all deliveries, but that back-to-back tariff and Gulf crises have thwarted previous projections.
"This post-Covid recovery has practically stalled," Antonio Da Costa, head of market analysis, told reporters.
The lower long-term growth outlook points to a less dynamic aviation market in the future as airlines are reducing their plans to expand capacity in the face of rising oil prices resulting from the war in Iran.
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Looking at demand across the industry, which includes planes sold by rival Boeing as well as newcomer China, Airbus said it expects a total of 42,060 commercial jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045, a 1% drop from its previous forecast for the next 20 years.
This includes 33,920 single-aisle jets in the industry's busiest segment, which includes the Airbus A320neo family and the Boeing 737 MAX, and 8,140 wide-body or long-range jets, both down 1% from the previous 20-year forecast.
This is barely enough to accommodate the production plans announced by Airbus and Boeing, while leaving room for the Chinese competitor C919 in the coming years, suggesting that the recent widespread shortage of aircraft may ease.
Facade of the Airbus factory in Toulouse, France
REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
Airbus said it expects a greater proportion of total commercial jet deliveries -- 47% compared with 45% previously -- to go towards replacing older jets rather than increasing fleet sizes.
The European company also revised upward its growth forecast passenger traffic, from 3.6% to 3.9% per year, but executives said this represented a downward revision from the 4.1% estimated in comparable terms.
Airbus did not provide data on demand for cargo aircraft.

Source: G1

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