Americans' perception of war affected Trump's actions, says professor

The North American population's perception of the war in Iran has directly influenced President Donald Trump's stance on the conflict in the Middle East. This is what Fernando Brancoli, professor of International Relations at UFRJ, assesses in an interview with CNN Prime Time.

According to him, recent opinion polls indicate that more than 80% of Americans are against the war in Iran, which creates a politically unfavorable scenario for the Republican.

The expert highlighted that the conflict is already starting to impact the United States economy, with a rise in the price of diesel and prospects for an increase in inflation and food.

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"At the end of the year there is an election here in the United States for the so-called midterm election, and the Republicans themselves are afraid that this will somehow spill over into the electoral process", stated Brancoli.

Trump's statements generate distrust
Brancoli also commented on Trump's repeated statements claiming to be close to an agreement with Iran - recorded on more than 37 occasions, according to a survey by CNN itself.

For the expert, the statements vary by hours or even minutes, which makes it difficult to identify a coherent United States policy towards Iran. "Iran has been stating that, at this moment, negotiations are not coming to an end", he highlighted.

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"It seems a bit like Trump trying to create a positive agenda," he added, remembering that the initial expectation was for the war to last two or three weeks, but the conflict has already been going on for months, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.

Iran demonstrates unexpected resilience
In Brancoli's assessment, from a humanitarian point of view, the war is a disaster, with deaths of civilians caught in the crossfire. Furthermore, the expert highlighted that Iran has demonstrated resilience far beyond what was expected.

"All the United States' expectations in a war against Iran were that this war would last weeks," he said. "Iran has demonstrated an ability to respond to attacks in a very potent manner."

The professor also mentioned that, even after the death of its top leadership in an attack, the Iranian regime did not collapse, there were no revolts in the streets and the government remained cohesive.

"Iran emerges from this war managing to send a message that it is a resilient country, that it is a country that can negotiate", he concluded.

Israel and the complexity of negotiations
Another point addressed by Brancoli was Israel's role in the negotiation process. According to him, one of the most complex issues in previous rounds of negotiations was precisely the situation of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Israel argued that any attacks on the group would not be part of a possible ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the United States.

Iran, in turn, demands that any agreement necessarily involves Lebanon.

"The war between Israel, Iran and the United States also involves people in Lebanon, Yemen, allies of the Americans in Jordan, in Saudi Arabia", listed the expert, highlighting the large number of actors involved in the conflict.

For Brancoli, this complexity makes peace still distant: "It could be that we announce in the next few hours the beginning of an agreement between Iran and the United States so that, hours later, Israel attacks Hezbollah and the agreement goes back."

China adopts an ambiguous stance in the face of the conflict
When analyzing China's role in the geopolitical context, Brancoli described the impact on Beijing as ambiguous.

On the one hand, China had benefited from purchasing Iranian oil at deep discounts, due to US sanctions on Iran.

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these economic relations were reduced considerably.

On the other hand, the expert cited an old geopolitical adage: "You should not interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake."

Brancoli also pointed out that the prolonged duration of the war led the United States to withdraw troops and war material from South Korea, which indirectly benefited China.

There was also evidence, according to him, of Chinese satellite images being shared with the Iranians during the conflict.

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Source: CNN