With tension in the Middle East and rising oil prices, the government raises inflation estimates to 4.5% this year, at the limit of the target

The government raised this Monday (18) its estimate for this year's official inflation from 3.7% to 4.5%.
The information is contained in the Macrofiscal Bulletin, from the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance.
The explanation is that the war in the Middle East has caused the price of oil to soar - which operates this Monday above US$ 110 - and, therefore, has the potential to put pressure on Brazilian inflation (via an increase in fuel prices). The impact of the shock on oil prices will be counterbalanced by the effects of the more appreciated real, and by mitigating measures adopted by the Federal Government to contain the pass-through of the increase in fuel prices in the domestic market", informed the Ministry of Finance. year, therefore, the financial market's projection is at the limit of the target system - which is 4.5%.
Financial market economists, however, estimate that inflation will be higher this year: 4.92%.
Economic growth
The Ministry of Finance maintained its projection for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year at 2.3%. If confirmed, it will be the same growth rate recorded in 2025.
"In the first quarter, the aggregate projection was also preserved, although with changes in composition: industry started to contribute less, services gained share and agriculture maintained its contribution in relation to the previous projection. In the intervening quarters, the pace of growth should decline, reflecting the lagged effects of restrictive monetary policy, with recovery expected only in the fourth quarter, as industry gains traction", assessed the Secretariat of Economic Policy.

Source: G1