Why the US-Iran deal is a political nightmare for Israel's prime minister

Trump accused Netanyahu of showing 'no discernment' in ordering an attack on Beirut over the weekend.
AFP/Getty Images via BBC
The ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has left Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a political nightmare by undermining the pillars of his career and leaving him trapped in a new security dilemma.
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As someone who presented himself How, so influential in Washington, with real access to American officials, could he be so widely marginalized and still publicly criticized by his main ally, the US?
How can the man who made confronting Iran the central axis of Israel's security policy end the war with the Iranian regime in a strengthened position? a general election in Israel?
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Netanyahu's options now are not good. They were summarized by opposition leader Yair Lapid on Monday (15/06) as "either a direct and destructive confrontation with our greatest ally, or a submissive surrender of Israel's interests". late October.
But comments from members of Netanyahu's own Likud party, and radical right ministers in his ruling coalition, also show the pressure he faces from within his own camp - especially regarding Tehran's demand that the ceasefire cover "military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon." Itamar Ben-Gvir, on social media on Monday. "We are not partners in this agreement that does not guarantee our security."
"Israel will continue to defend itself," said Ariel Kallner, a Likud lawmaker, although he did not clarify whether this meant Israel would continue its attacks.
"We will do whatever is necessary. And we hope that our allies understand," he said. "Sometimes there are disagreements between allies, and allies must also understand their partners when they are in danger."
Sima Shine, a former Mossad member and Iran expert, said that "it is difficult to understand why the Americans accepted this."
"By allowing Iran to decide what will happen in Lebanon, the US is giving Iran the possibility of continuing to support Hezbollah and ensuring that Hezbollah is a major political player on the Lebanese stage." "Israel is not happy with this - neither the security sector nor the political one," he said.
Amid a wave of criticism and outrage across the political spectrum, Israel's prime minister reacted angrily on Monday night to suggestions from journalists that he had failed.
"I have dedicated most of my adult life to one goal - preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons," he said during a press conference in Jerusalem. I'm not limiting myself in any way to this goal: Iran will not have nuclear weapons."
But he also admitted that there were cases where he and Trump had different views.
"I expressed my views in the discussions, but we have our own interests: first, no nuclear threat; second, Lebanon - we created a buffer zone and we will remain there as long as necessary," he said.
"Iran wanted us to withdraw - you know why? Our American allies respect this determination. We also insist on preserving our operational freedom - if we are attacked or threatened, we will respond."
Netanyahu is often quick to declare victories, but he now faces a difficult task in deciding his next steps.
Security has been a central pillar of Netanyahu's promises to voters for decades. That is an increasingly difficult message to sustain.
His response to the devastating Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023 was to shift Israel's security policy towards a more aggressive - anticipating threats rather than containing them. His proposal for resolving the current crisis was to change the Middle East by eliminating the threats faced by Israel.
But although Israeli forces have destroyed much of Gaza and killed more than 73,000 people, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health, the Palestinian group still controls half of the territory. Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire.
Netanyahu's new security strategy has led Israeli forces to occupy large areas of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
The measure is popular among many Israelis and is likely to last until the election, but it has also been straining the country's military resources and its reservists to the limit, without a clear diplomatic solution.
Successive cycles of conflict with Hezbollah and the Iranian regime have not eliminated Israel's main enemies, but they ended up leaving Tehran in the hands of more hard-line leaders, less afraid of US and Israeli power and with greater ability to project through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, Israel's main enemy appears to be whoever has the most influence over Israel's main ally.
"Israel's failure requires a reassessment of its strategy towards Tehran. [Israel] must formulate more realistic and constrained priorities," says Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies. moment."
Netanyahu's pitch to Israeli voters has long been that his policies and political skills are the best protection against regional threats; that promise seems increasingly outstripped by the reality of the facts.
A regime change in Iran could have rescued his political image and his electoral narrative. Instead, his new approach to security has left him faced with the choice between confrontation or surrender - not to an enemy, but to an ally.
The BBC uses artificial intelligence to translate this report, originally written in English. The text was reviewed by a BBC journalist before publication. Find out more here about how the BBC is using artificial intelligence (link to text in English).

Source: G1