Waack: Research effect is reversed and harms Flávio Bolsonaro

Candidacies that are consolidated through polls...suffer, a lot, when polls drop. This is what is happening at the moment with the pre-candidacy of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

When he was anointed candidate by his own father, Flávio initially faced considerable reluctance to endorse his name from other center-right political groups. But the first polls placed him in a numerically even favorable position compared to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

In a sequence of results that seemed to give him the privilege of playing still, the numbers, it was believed, spoke for themselves. Who, if not him, could prevent President Lula's re-election?

It was then that Flávio assumed a position comparable to a single name to face Lula. The research effect on the consolidation of the candidacy was reversed when disappointing results began to appear in the surveys in relation to the previous ones.

And, what's worse, disappointing results caused exclusively by the candidate himself. Whether through the connection with the former banker at the center of today's biggest scandal, or through the connection with sectors of the American government that are using instruments of coercion against Brazil.

Worrying for Bolsonaro's son's candidacy at this moment are two elements indicated by the polls. The first is persistent: there is considerable space in the electorate wanting an alternative to the Lula-Bolsonaro axis.

The second is the negative impact for Flávio on a very small segment of the electorate, which researchers call independents.

However, in an election that is extraordinarily close, any "change" has major consequences.

Source: CNN