Vessels take advantage of the opening in Hormuz, but traffic may close soon

The Strait of Hormuz saw more traffic in the last week than in the last three months. But that pace slowed on Friday as a crucial evacuation plan was suspended.

Seventy-three vessels transited this important waterway on Wednesday, the highest number since shortly after the start of the war with Iran in late February, according to MarineTraffic. This number is more than double the traffic recorded on Tuesday.

The increase in traffic comes after the United States lifted sanctions on Iranian oil earlier this week as part of the ceasefire agreement between the two countries. The United Nations and IMO (International Maritime Organization) also launched a humanitarian initiative to remove 11,000 stranded seafarers and 500 vessels from the strait.

"What we're seeing is ships that had been sitting in the Gulf for this long period starting to come out, with a focus on humanitarian aid to rescue seafarers and then some select oil tankers when sanctions were lifted," said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, who spent half a decade working for a major shipping company in the Middle East.

"So this doesn't just mean that the green flag has been raised and everyone should start crossing the strait."

Before the war, experts estimated that between 110 and 160 ships used to sail through the passage between Iran and Oman every day. Since fighting blocked the strait, an average of fewer than ten ships a day have transited the 21-mile passage.

Maritime traffic began to intensify over the weekend as shipping companies became more confident that negotiations between the US and Iran were progressing.

On Wednesday, the IMO, together with Iran and Oman, created two new shipping lanes - one along the northern part of the strait, close to Iran, and another in the southern part of the strait, closer to Oman - that were free of mines and other hazards. The ships were contacted directly by the (competent) agencies when it was their turn to leave.

The idea was to remove maritime traffic from the region gradually and under strict controls. However, the IMO suspended its evacuation plans on Thursday after a vessel was hit in the Gulf of Oman. A US official told CNN that the ship was hit by an Iranian drone strike, but did not provide further details. Iran has not accepted responsibility.

Maritime traffic fell by about half on Friday after Iran warned that ships should not pass through the strait off the coast of Oman and that safe passage would only be guaranteed via routes declared to Iran. This raised concern about possible future attacks as ships try to leave or enter the strait near Oman.

IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez said in a statement that he took the precaution of temporarily suspending the program, even though the attacked vessel "was not transiting under the IMO evacuation framework."

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For months, shipping companies have been taking a wait-and-see approach, carefully calculating the risk of sending ships through the strait. To date, there have been at least 46 attacks on vessels and 14 deaths, according to the IMO.

Companies have been hesitant to transport cargo and personnel through mine-strewn waters under threat of missile attacks. Insurers canceled coverage on the ships due to wartime clauses. Several large shipping companies, such as Hapag-Lloyd, have used US Navy guides to cross the strait - but this supply has not been constant.

"The ships that are actually transiting Hormuz this week are still mostly Iranian flagged and some (Taiwanese) Evergreen ships. The major global carriers have not yet returned, so we are closer to the status quo than real change," said Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global shipping logistics company.

Manders and Seroka expect traffic levels to fall in the coming days during the pause in IMO evacuation efforts.

The IMO plans to "reconfirm that the necessary security guarantees remain in place for the ships on our evacuation list and for all those in the region," Dominguez said.

Source: CNN