USDA raises global wheat supply projection for 2026/27 harvest

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) raised global projections for all categories of the wheat balance in the 2026/27 harvest. World supply was estimated at 1.1 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes over the previous projection, mainly reflecting upward revisions in Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, partially offset by reductions in Australia and Pakistan.

In Russia, wheat production was increased by 2 million tons, to 88 million. The USDA attributes the adjustment to favorable weather conditions and above-average rainfall, which supported winter wheat productivity despite the reduction in acreage devoted to spring wheat.

In Türkiye, production was estimated at 22.5 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons and a historical record. In Ukraine, the projection increased to 23.5 million tons, an increase of 0.5 million, also associated with favorable weather conditions during spring.

In Australia, production was reduced by 2 million tons, to 28 million, due to the smaller harvested area, according to data from the quarterly report by Abares (Australian Office of Agricultural Economics and Resource Sciences).

Global wheat consumption was projected at 824.6 million tonnes, an increase of 1.4 million tonnes, driven mainly by increased use for animal feed and residual consumption in Russia.

World wheat trade was estimated at 212 million tonnes, up 0.3 million, with growth in exports from Ukraine and other countries, partially offset by a reduction in Australian exports.

Global ending stocks for 2026/27 were projected at 275.4 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4 million from the previous estimate. The adjustment mainly reflects increases in stocks in Egypt and Türkiye, partially offset by reductions in Ukraine, Australia, Russia and the United States.

In the United States, supply projections were reduced, with an impact on ending stocks. Production was mainly adjusted by lower production of hard red winter wheat. Exports were maintained at 21.09 million tons, a 15% drop compared to the previous year. Ending stocks were estimated at 20.25 million tons, a reduction from the 20.74 million previously projected.

In Brazil, the production estimate was maintained at 6.7 million tons, with exports forecast at 7.2 million tons.

In Argentina, production was maintained at 21 million tons, with exports projected at 14.5 million tons.

Source: CNN