USDA predicts record coffee harvest in Brazil and 30% increase in exports
Brazil is expected to register one of the biggest recoveries in its coffee production in recent years in the 2026/27 harvest, with 70 million bags. According to a report released by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), favorable weather conditions in the main producing regions boost a positive outlook, especially for Arabica coffee, after a long period marked by harvests below potential.
The USDA highlights that the 2026/27 harvest has the potential to reach a record level, driven by the combination of suitable weather, recovery of the arabica production cycle and improvement in agronomic conditions observed in the country's main coffee growing areas. The result represents an important change after five consecutive years of production considered low in relation to Brazilian production capacity.
Exports on the rise
The expectation of greater supply should directly reflect on foreign trade. The North American body projects that Brazilian coffee exports will grow by around 30% in the 2026/27 commercial year, to 49 million bags, supported by the increase in the supply of product for shipment. Brazil remains the world's largest coffee exporter and tends to increase its participation in the international market if projections are confirmed.
Brazil exported 11.5 million 60 kg bags of coffee between January and April 2026, a 24% drop compared to the same period last year.
In its analysis, the American department recalls that the provisional approval of the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur could further boost Brazilian coffee exports. Green coffee beans enter Europe tariff-free; instant coffee has a 9% rate and roasted and ground coffee has a 7.5% rate.
Cautious producers
Despite the favorable scenario, the market still adopts a cautious stance. The report points out that Brazilian exporters have avoided closing new deals in large volumes due to reduced stocks and climate uncertainty for the coming months.
A possible formation of the El Niño phenomenon worries agents in the production chain due to its possible impacts on the end of the current harvest and on the development of the 2027/28 harvest.
The USDA assessment converges with recent estimates from Conab (National Supply Company), which also indicate a recovery in national production in 2026, supported by the positive biennial of Arabica and the good conditions observed in important producing states.
The scenario of greater supply comes after a period of strong appreciation of coffee in national and international markets, caused by supply restrictions in large global producers and adverse weather events recorded in recent years. With a more robust harvest in Brazil, the market is now monitoring the balance between the recovery of production and the behavior of global demand, in addition to climate risks that continue to be the main factor of volatility for the sector.
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Source: CNN