USA x Cuba: Is there a risk of military intervention? Understand the escalation of tensions

Tensions between the United States and Cuba reached a new level with the criminal charges against Raúl Castro, former president of the island, and the sending of an American aircraft carrier to the Caribbean region.

The measures were interpreted by analysts as part of an escalation of pressure from Washington on the Cuban government, in a context of a serious energy and humanitarian crisis on the island.

According to CNN Brasil correspondent in Buenos Aires, Luciana Taddeo, recent events bear similarities to the period that preceded the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

"CNN itself identified US military aircraft flying very close to the island, just like what we had seen in Venezuela," he said.

The detection of these movements by flight monitoring platforms would have occurred weeks before the attacks in Venezuela, which reinforces the concern about the Cuban scenario.

Charges against Raúl Castro
The United States Department of Justice filed criminal charges against Raúl Castro and other members of the Cuban Air Force based on an episode that occurred in 1996.

That year, two civilian aircraft from the organization "Brothers to the Rescue" - founded by Cuban exiles in the United States and dedicated to flying over the strait between Cuba and Florida to help refugees - were shot down by Cuba.

Four people died in the case, including three North American citizens. The charges include destroying aircraft, murder and conspiracy to kill Americans.

Luciana Taddeo explained that, at the time, the Cuban government alleged that the organization was planning attacks against the island's leaders and infrastructure, such as high voltage towers and oil refineries.

Cuba denies the accusations and claims to pose no threat to the United States, maintaining that the organization was terrorist and that it had repeatedly invaded Cuban airspace without Washington taking any action.

American strategy
CNN Brazil international analyst Lourival Sant'Anna cited a meeting that took place on May 16, when John Ratcliffe, head of the CIA, went to Havana to talk to Cuban officials, including Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro.

According to Sant'Anna, the conversation was not productive. Ratcliffe would have presented American conditions for the normalization of relations, demanding that Cuba cease to be, in his words, "a base for spying on the enemies of the United States", such as China, Russia and Iran.

Two days after the meeting, the Axios platform reported that, according to American intelligence, Cuba had acquired around 300 Shahed drones from Iran since 2023 - the same ones used by Russia in Ukraine -, in addition to Russian military doctrine and Chinese intelligence on aerial warfare.

For Sant'Anna, this information would also have contributed to the change in American tactics.

"The United States launched a network, which was the naval blockade. Then, they launched a bait, which is this formal denunciation of Raúl and five others", he analyzed.

Humanitarian crisis and psychological warfare
The crisis in Cuba goes beyond the political sphere. According to the Cuban Ministry of Health, sanctions no longer only affect the economy, but threaten basic human security.

About 5 million Cubans with chronic illnesses have their medications or treatments compromised, including 16,000 cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy.

For Sant'Anna, Cubans have never suffered as much as they do now, not even during the so-called "special period" after the end of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

The analyst assesses that, at this stage, American actions have a strong component of psychological warfare, with the aim of generating fissures in the Cuban regime.

"Is there anyone more pragmatic? Someone who thinks that this way cannot continue and that it is possible to negotiate with the Americans? This is the stage we are at now", concluded Sant'Anna, suggesting that Washington seeks to identify, within the Cuban Armed Forces, possible interlocutors willing to rapprochement with the American government.

Who is Raúl Castro, former president of Cuba?

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Source: CNN