US assesses that Iran can close Hormuz whenever it wants, despite agreement

US intelligence agencies have recently assessed that Iran can now effectively block access to the Strait of Hormuz at will. This means the regime has acquired a powerful new ability to harm the global economy as a result of the war, according to three sources familiar with the assessment.

Regardless of the interim agreement expected to be formally signed on Friday to reopen the important sea lane, Iran has demonstrated during the current conflict that it can cut off access to the strait, and American intelligence assessments indicate that this could happen again.

"We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait - a weapon more powerful than any nuclear weapon," one of the sources familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN, emphasizing how the war has profoundly altered how Tehran thinks about using similar tactics in the future.

Iran has also learned that it can use targeted attacks against Gulf countries' energy infrastructure as an asymmetric capability, after doing so with great effectiveness during the war, a second source added. This would be another tool that Tehran could exploit to its advantage going forward.

The US had to negotiate intensively with Iran to fully reopen the strait, highlighting the Iranians' continued influence over the situation.

CNN has reached out to the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for comment.

A senior American official told CNN that Iran will not be able to access "any benefits" from the interim agreement if the strait does not remain open or if it fails to comply with other agreed points. The official did not elaborate on what these benefits would be, but explained that the US will gradually ease its blockade as Iran reestablishes traffic through the strait.

"If Iran does its part, relief will come and American influence will be maintained throughout the process," he added.

Another source familiar with the deal acknowledged to CNN that Iran tried to disrupt the free flow of energy through the strait, but ended up displeasing China and the Gulf countries.

"Iran pays a price when it does this," the source said, noting that any future attempt to effectively close the strait would entail self-inflicted consequences.

Uncertainty over the terms of the deal and other risks are also likely to keep traffic at the strategic point low for weeks or months, according to maritime industry officials and experts who monitor ship movements.

USA x Iran Agreement: Countries give different versions on opening Hormuz | CNN PRIME TIME

One of the main reasons why Iran believes it can continue to use the strait as an instrument of pressure is that it still maintains a significant portion of its arsenal, including missiles, drones, missile launchers and hundreds of small fast craft that continue to harass ships trying to cross the passage and which can also be used to lay naval mines.

In addition, Iran has been rebuilding its military industrial base faster than the US expected and has already resumed drone production, CNN previously reported.

There have been discussions about the possibility of allies patrolling the strait after it reopens, but it is not yet clear how that would work. According to sources, the most recent intelligence assessments already consider this possibility.

Even with an agreement apparently on the way to reopen the strait and end the current conflict, several sources said that Iran has been planning an "economic nuclear option" if negotiations with the US fail: having the Houthis, Tehran's main allied force in Yemen, close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean - another strategic bottleneck for global trade and which has become a vital route during the months in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

Taken together, recent U.S. intelligence assessments highlight the lasting impact of President Donald Trump's decision to initiate the conflict without fully considering Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz and raise new doubts about Tehran's ability to use the global economy as an instrument of pressure in the future - an issue that goes beyond any interim agreement between the two countries to reopen the sea passage.

Since Iran closed the strait, American intelligence agencies have continually reassessed how and under what circumstances Tehran might resort to this instrument of pressure again, according to three sources.

Although there is still no consensus within the intelligence community, several sources claim that Iran was strengthened by the fact that it managed to close the strait and attack the energy infrastructure of the Gulf countries without consuming a significant portion of their military capabilities.

Now that Iran has demonstrated both the intent and the capability to close the strait, some U.S. officials believe the country will be more inclined to repeat such a move in the future, two sources said.

On Monday, a government official said the goal is to "create a mechanism that makes it impossible" to close the strait again.

Vice President JD Vance told CNN, in an interview with Jake Tapper, that he believes one of the reasons Iran agreed to reach a framework agreement with the US is because it "recognizes that it is losing that influence over the Strait of Hormuz."

Earlier, Trump said the strait "is already partially open" and will be fully reopened on Friday, when the US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding.

"They are looking for some mines that have already been found, but the ships are already starting to leave," Trump said during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit. "On Friday, it will be completely open."

"I don't think we're going to need much help, because we have an agreement that it will remain open and there will be no toll charges. We had a little discussion about it, but it will be toll-free," he added.

However, Trump has explained little about how any deal could prevent Iran from taking similar steps in the future, especially after the US lifts the naval blockade and gradually returns to a more normal military posture in the region.

Miscalculation strengthened Iran
Iran had long threatened to close the strait in response to attacks from foreign adversaries including the US and Israel, but had not demonstrated the ability to do so successfully before Trump's decision to begin military operations alongside Israel this year.

According to several sources, one of the reasons the Trump administration underestimated Iran's willingness to close the strait was the belief that doing so would harm Iran itself more than the US - a view reinforced by empty threats made by Tehran following US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer.

Senior administration officials were also confident that China would eventually use its influence over Iran to prevent an effective closure of the strait.

As a result, the Trump administration decided to prioritize strikes against Iranian military targets rather than devoting resources to dissuading Iran from trying to block the Strait of Hormuz, two sources familiar with the planning discussions said.

But just days after the conflict began, it became clear that there had been a miscalculation.

"Losing control of the strait will be the biggest mistake of this era, because it is a card that the US cannot neutralize without mobilizing everything it has," said a fourth source involved in military planning for the war. "Now there is no way to reverse the situation without concentrating a gigantic military force."

US officials believe Iran decided to close the strait in response to Trump's initial statement that the aim of the war was to overthrow the Iranian regime, seeing this as an existential threat that justified an unprecedented escalation.

The same source noted that Tehran did not take this action immediately after the bombings, but waited a few days until it believed it had understood the true US objective.

"Iran was deliberate in the way it escalated the conflict," he added.

Significant influence
Right now, the Iranians are calibrating their actions, all sources say, and it is still unclear how the interim agreement expected to be signed in Geneva could change the situation.

But it is clear that Iran has gained significant influence by demonstrating the ability to close the strait.

Tehran also knows it can make the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but is aware that such a drastic step would harm the diplomatic process and the nuclear negotiations about to begin.

Closing Bab el-Mandeb while keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed would cause a huge shock to the global economy, one of the sources said.

The second source familiar with recent American intelligence assessments noted that it is significant that the Houthis have not yet resumed large-scale attacks on American or European vessels, although they have stated that Israeli-flagged or Israeli-owned vessels remain legitimate targets.

Expanding the range of targets beyond Israeli vessels would represent a serious escalation, the source added.

According to the sources, Iran has not ordered the Houthis to take this measure until now because it knows that doing so could jeopardize the ongoing peace negotiations.

But this remains a card that Tehran could play if the search for a deal fails and the US resumes large-scale military operations.

Understand why the US cannot protect the Strait of Hormuz

Source: CNN