Understand how disciplinary criteria can complicate Brazil's path to the World Cup
In a World Cup with 48 teams, every detail gains even more importance. In the new format of the 2026 World Cup, the disciplinary criteria, defined by the Fair Play score, could become a decisive factor for teams looking to advance in the competition.
The rule, which considers yellow and red cards as part of the tiebreaker criteria, can affect Brazil in different scenarios: in the fight for group leadership, in defining the opponent in the knockout stage and in the dispute for places allocated to the best third-placed teams.
And the situation of the Seleção already started to appear in the debut against Morocco.
Draw left Brazil behind on the cards
Brazil and Morocco ended the first round of Group C tied 1-1, in New Jersey. As neither team achieved an advantage in direct confrontation, goal difference or number of goals scored, Fair Play came to be considered.
During the match, the Brazilian team received two yellow cards: Casemiro was cautioned in the 37th minute of the first half, while Roger Ibañez was carded in the 43rd minute. Morocco, on the other hand, ended the game without disciplinary punishment.
According to FIFA regulations, the cards directly affect the Fair Play score. Each yellow deducts one point, while red cards carry a greater penalty. As a result, Brazil started the competition with a balance of -2 in this criterion and was behind the Moroccans in the tiebreaker classification.
Group leadership can change the path in the knockout stage
Placement in the group stage will have a greater influence in 2026 because of the new classification model.
The group leaders will face, in the first knockout phase, one of the eight best third-placed teams. The runners-up may face stronger opponents at the start of the knockout stage, depending on the combination of the groups.
Therefore, finishing a position above or below can completely change the planning of a selection. A team that loses the lead due to tiebreaker criteria, even with similar campaigns, may end up anticipating clashes against traditional opponents and finding a more difficult path to the final.
Third-placed teams increase the importance of Fair Play
Disciplinary criteria can also be decisive in the classification of third-placed teams.
Of the 12 teams that finish in this position, eight will advance to complete the group of 32 knockout teams. As these teams come from different groups, there is no direct confrontation to resolve possible ties.
In this scenario, the regulation compares general campaigns. If several teams finish with close scores, the number of goals scored and Fair Play can decide who continues in the competition.
A team with many cards can be left out even without having lost the last match and with a campaign similar to that of another classified team.
Suspensions remain a concern
In addition to the table, the cards could also miss Brazil during the competition.
The 2026 World Cup regulations provide that accumulated yellow cards will be reset after the group stage and again after the quarter-finals. Still, the player who receives two yellow cards in different matches during the first phase will be automatically suspended.
This means that the Seleção will need to control the use of tactical fouls, especially in balanced games.
Recent history shows that this type of situation has already affected Brazil in World Cups. In 2014, Thiago Silva was left out of the semi-final against Germany due to suspension, while Casemiro did not participate in the elimination against Belgium in the quarter-finals of the 2018 World Cup.
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Source: CNN