Trump's strategy is to threaten and then retreat, says expert

American President Donald Trump's strategy in negotiations with Iran follows a well-defined pattern: escalating tensions and then retreating, presenting the possibility of an agreement as an outcome. The assessment is by Hussein Kalout, Harvard researcher and professor of International Relations at USP, in an interview with WW.

According to Kalout, although Trump signaled that the main points of an understanding would already be agreed, the actual content of the memorandum of understanding under discussion remains unknown.

"Nobody knows the content and contours of this memorandum of understanding", said the expert.

Two stages of the memorandum
According to Kalout, Pakistani and Qatari mediators who met with Iranian representatives indicate that the memorandum covers two distinct stages.

The first concerns the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Only after this point has been resolved would the parties move on to a second stage, centered on negotiations around the nuclear agreement.

Kalout highlighted that there are fundamental issues that Iran refuses to negotiate.

The first point is the abandonment of the ballistic missile program, which Tehran considers a conventional missile program and, therefore, its defense shield. "The Iranians are not going to give up on this", highlighted the expert.

The second point is the financing and arming of armed groups and movements in the region, which Iran sees as an extension of its military power. The third non-negotiable point involves trade-offs for the nuclear deal.

In the Iranian view, ending uranium enrichment to 60% would only be possible through the Trump administration's release of part of the 100 billion dollars retained by the United States - resources that belong to Iran.

"The progress of the agreement depends on all these variables," said Kalout.

"What happened between the parties is the intention to discuss these variables. Now, their depth and the commitment around them is still in the process of evolving." says the researcher.

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Source: CNN