Trump must give in to contain damage from the war in Iran, says professor

The conflict between the United States and Iran puts the American government in a delicate position, according to Gunther Rudzit, professor of International Relations at ESPM, to Hora H.

Gunther assessed that Iran is emerging as the winner of the confrontation and that Trump will be forced to make concessions to avoid a politically damaging outcome.

Iran resists and maintains a position of strength
For Gunther, the fact that the Iranian regime has not been defeated already represents, in itself, a victory.

"Iran is the one winning this war," said the expert.

"The Iranian regime has not been defeated. It is facing the biggest war machine in the world and remains in power."

This resistance, according to him, gives the Persian Gulf country a considerable advantage in the ongoing negotiations.

Central point of negotiations: frozen financial resources
One of the main obstacles to an agreement, according to Gunther, is the issue of Iranian financial resources frozen in American banks since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Iran demands the immediate release of approximately US$25 billion, while the American government prefers that the amounts be released gradually, as the Iranian side complies with the terms of the agreement - a model similar to what was negotiated during the Obama administration.

"This is very important for Iran to rebuild the country after these attacks", explained the expert, highlighting that the Iranian economic and social situation is already quite critical.

The expert warned of the political risk that Trump faces depending on the level of concessions he needs to make.

According to Gunther, if the final agreement results in conditions more favorable to Iran than those negotiated by the Obama administration - an agreement from which Trump withdrew the United States in his first term -, criticism will be severe.

"The criticism will be very strong, including from Republicans," he said.

"There are Republicans who were already opposed to this war and who will be even more opposed if Iran emerges stronger than it was before it."

Oil as a global pressure factor
Gunther also compared the economic impact of this conflict with that of the war in Ukraine, highlighting that oil is a much more comprehensive and sensitive resource than the agricultural grains exported by Ukraine and Russia.

"Oil is much more comprehensive and sensitive than agriculture, comprehensive in terms of reaching the entire world," he said.

For the expert, Iran can only be pressured to negotiate if the conflict begins to seriously affect the global economy and, consequently, Chinese growth - which could lead Xi Jinping to intervene directly with the Iranian leadership.

On the American domestic front, Gunther pointed out that Trump was already preparing for a possible loss of control of the Chamber of Deputies by the Republican Party, also counting on maintaining the Senate as a shield against a possible impeachment process.

"It's complicated for him, but he still plays with these dynamics of American domestic politics", concluded the expert.

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Source: CNN