Trump government will 'tension' elections in Brazil due to fear of China, says expert who mapped the right in Latin America

The most recent presidential victories in Latin America reinforced the movement that the region has been promoting for a few years: to have its countries governed by the right.
After more than three weeks of counting the polls, Keiko Fujimori was crowned the winner of the elections in Peru. With a difference of 49,641 more votes over the left-wing candidate, Roberto Sánchez, this was another fierce election in Latin America, where right and left fought, vote by vote, for voter preference.
It was another election in which the right-wing emerged victorious in the region, similar to Abelardo de la Espriella's victory in the disputed second round in Colombia.
Both are right-wing, although they have antagonistic characteristics, as explained by Regiane Bressan, professor of International Relations at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp), specializing in Latin America.
While De la Espriella is seen as an outsider - a young businessman who has never held any elected office before - Keiko Fujimori comes from a family traditional in politics in her country and ran in three other presidential elections before this last one, in which she emerged victorious.
On the other hand, the two presidents were elected with a strong message of combating drug trafficking and street violence and contributed to leaving the map of the region increasingly to the right.
This movement has been happening since the beginning of the 2000s, explains Bressan, and in the last decade it has almost completely colored the map of Latin America. all of right-wing presidents (see below).
She attributes this shift to the right to several factors, but reinforces that disbelief in traditional politics, the influence of social networks and the search for quick solutions to complex problems are very present.
But the common denominator of this movement is not a speech, it is a country: the United States.
For Bressan, the country interferes - directly or indirectly - in the region's decisions. And Brazil's elections this year will be no different.
"I believe that the United States will continue to put tension in our region and I think they will put tension in the elections in Brazil," she says.
In this interview, she explains what is behind this American "tension" in the region, why a right-wing president is not automatically an ally of Trump, and how the discourse based on public security is so present in all campaigns.
President-elect of Colombia and Trump: what is the impact of the alliance on the country and South America?
With 100% of the votes counted, Keiko Fujimori wins the election in Peru and closes the right-wing 'ring of fire' around Brazil
Trump and elections in Brazil: Celso Amorim says that attempted intervention could have the opposite effect
BBC News Brazil - We can start by giving an overview of the main leaders in Latin America and their alignments politicians?
Regiane Bressan - Well, in Argentina, Javier Milei is a right-wing president, aligned with Donald Trump.
In Bolivia, president Rodrigo Paz Pereira is aligned to the right and ended a long cycle of hegemony of the socialist movement, represented by Evo Morales.
In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is left-wing. And it is important to talk about Mexico, which is a country and a leader that has tried over the last few years not only to be governed by the left, but to have autonomy and reinforce its sovereignty. At the same time, they have a policy very close to the United States, this is historical due to the border, international agreements, through NAFTA itself, which today, with Mexico, is called T-MEC.
However, Claudia Sheinbaum has found it very difficult to maintain a certain autonomy, since the issues of migration, drug trafficking and even trade, with the maquiladoras - which are American companies that are in Mexico - cause a very strong interdependence.
She finds, very more than Brazil, difficulty in maintaining autonomy and sovereignty at the same time. Mexico, through left-wing governments, sought a greater presence in Latin America, including being among the interlocutor countries on the Venezuelan issue. However, he was quite weakened because he was unable to have a dialogue, at the time, with Nicolás Maduro, after the July 2024 elections.
About Chile, I was there before the second round, which gave victory, at the end of last year, to José Antonio Kast. At that time, the population felt the great problem of public security, of violence in the streets. There is a lot of pressure from the United States on the one hand, and from migratory flows, especially Venezuelans, on the other, because they have much more resistance than we do in relation to the Venezuelans. And this helped in Kast's victory, since Chile is also a historically more conservative country, more to the right.
Kast is not a populist like Milei or like Abelardo de la Espriella, who just won in Colombia, but he is aligned with the United States and the right.
Speaking of Abelardo de la Espriella, in Colombia, he imitates [Nayib] Bukele and Milei. He is a populist extremist, an outsider who has practically no experience in politics, but was elected with a speech attacking the difficulty of Gustavo Petro's governance, the migratory flow from Venezuela, an alignment with the United States and the challenge of economic growth.
BBC News Brazil - Panama, although not among the major countries in the region, has an interesting situation to be said, doesn't it?
Bressan - Yes, there, President José Raúl Mulino is also considered right-wing, but it is important to remember that the United States threatened to regain control over the Panama Canal. In other words, it is not because the government is right-wing that Trump is easily aligned and supported.
I think that the United States is always a threat and countries have to bend a lot. And this was pressured by the document issued on December 5, 2025, when the United States announced its interest in having dominance in the region, in exercising influence.
In other words, even though Mulino is right-wing, he still suffers pressure from the United States over the Panama Canal.
BBC News Brasil - Being right-wing does not automatically guarantee support from the United States.
Bressan - Exactly.
BBC News Brazil - These countries aligned with right-wing and the United States were elected with a speech about combating drug trafficking and violence, perhaps except for Milei.
Bressan - Yes, but he was elected in 2023, it was a different time. And Argentina has been facing a huge problem of economic growth since 2002.
The country is in an economic crisis and it is very anchored in this issue of ideology, because there were ideological exchanges in Argentina and none of them managed to solve the economic problem. So he focused a lot on the economy, but I think he also brings up this issue of violence and security in his speech, but not as much as others at the moment, since this is also a very big flag for Trump.
So, in general, and answering your question, for sure. And the issue of violence will also shape the election here in Brazil.
BBC News Brasil - But continuing with the mapping, Peru was missing...
Bressan - That's where Keiko Fujimori was elected. She is right-wing, but she is not an outsider like the others, like Abelardo, Milei and Bukele. She comes from a traditional family, she is the daughter of Alberto Fujimori, who governed the country in an authoritarian manner in the 90s, so she must follow a very conservative right-wing line.
This is her fourth attempt at election. And she also used the issues of drug trafficking and internal security as a banner in her electoral campaign.
BBC News Brasil - And this anchoring on this issue of security, violence, is one of the factors that can explain the country's return to Fujimori?
Bressan - Yes, but it was a very close campaign and election. But we can say yes, that this theme also induced, also favored his election. Peru has long been heavily involved in drug trafficking. Along with Bolivia and Colombia, it is a country that leads in involvement with drug trafficking.
The issue of drug trafficking is a big problem, because, at the same time that countries like Brazil want to have autonomy and sovereignty to deal with this problem, it is a transnational problem in which countries can no longer carry out an offensive alone.
In fact, one of the biggest problems with drug trafficking is consumption, and the main consumer market is United States. If there isn't a fight against drug consumption there, we won't be able to do it here. Because from the moment I continue to consume, I am encouraging the entire chain.
And we already know that countries will not be able to cope alone.
So it is possible that both Colombia and Peru and Bolivia will have greater involvement from the United States in the fight against drug trafficking, including in Bolivia.
It is also important to talk about Uruguay, whose president is Yamandú Orsi, on the left.
It is one of the most stable countries in Latin America. Unlike the others, he is on the left, but there is not as great an ideological tension as in the others. Policies are maintained there.
Talking to leaders, analysts and researchers in Uruguay, this is what we see: a left, but one that maintains public policies, and then when the right wins, there aren't many changes either. So it is one of the most stable countries in the region, of course, always maintaining the democratic precept.
BBC News Brazil - Recently a speech by President Lula was leaked stating that he "was never a leftist". This speech took place in an informal conversation with the director general of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, and the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, during the G7 in France. How would you classify the country?
Bressan - I still classify it as left-wing, as a progressive country. But the left itself criticizes a lot, has a lot of criticism.
BBC News Brasil - Looking at this map, we can see that the right, the governments aligned with the United States are the majority in the countries in the region. Does this have to do with what researchers call the pendulum in Latin America?
Bressan - Yes, in general, governments are aligned to the right. That wouldn't be a problem, after all, it's not a problem to be right-wing or left-wing. The problem is that extremist governments often tension and flirt with authoritarianism.
Often, in order to achieve certain things, like, for example, Milei, who promised to abolish the Central Bank and dollarize the economy, and, to do so, he is making a huge affront to Congress, because this cannot be resolved with the president alone.
Latin American citizens believe in a democracy that we call delegative democracy. Guillermo O'Donnell [Argentine political scientist] said that Latin American voters believe that democracy only happens every four years, through suffrage.
In other words, if elected president, he would have superpowers to govern the way he wants.
And so, the Latin American population is often not surprised when a government moves towards authoritarianism, because this movement is often done gradually. It doesn't happen overnight that it becomes authoritarian.
Let's look at the example of Venezuela, which is the most recent in the region: democratic institutions were being extinguished, reforms were being made, and when the population realizes it, it's already an authoritarian government.
The big concern with extremist and populist governments is that they often have the support of the population for certain reforms.
Hugo Chávez himself held numerous plebiscites. He, who was a figure who governed a lot around himself, was quite populist.
Our fear of governments like Bukele's, like Milei's, like Abelardo de la Espriella's now, who is an outsider who doesn't come from traditional politics, is that they could, in some way, migrate towards authoritarianism.
BBC News Brasil - And why were these governments elected now?
Bressan - There is also disbelief in traditional politics and in democracy itself. Why did the population elect candidates like them, who have no repertoire?
I was in Argentina in 2023, just before the primaries, and I managed, at that moment, to visit the Argentine Congress together with a deputy. I was doing research on support for the Mercosur-European Union agreement.
In Congress, I asked this deputy about Milei, [also a deputy at the time], and he replied: "I know how he works here, he talks much less than me - and I'm not a very expressive candidate - so he's unlikely to win".
In fact, of the ten interviewees we had that week, everyone said "Milei has no chance". I even heard "we are not Brazil, like you, who elected Bolsonaro".
But they were more experienced people, older, who still believed in traditional politics. Younger people, in addition to not believing in traditional politics, feed on information through social media, and like candidates who present a quick solution, an immediate solution [to problems].
That's why Colombia just elected Abelardo de la Espriella, who is young and a businessman. And he wants to provide a quick solution to a historic problem in Colombia, which is drug trafficking, a problem that has been going on since the 70s.
All this so that we understand that the region is currently governed by mostly right-wing governments, which are taking a very heavy toll on the issue of public security. This is because violence is high, but it is also the result of a structural problem in the region, which is poverty and inequality. And left-wing governments were unable to resolve this problem completely.
We had the left-wing wave at the beginning of the 21st century and these governments, of course, became saturated. And then another important thing about external influence: this period [of the wave of the left, early 2000s] was the moment when the United States turned to 9/11 and they gave themselves a space, a breather, they withdrew a lot from our region.
And there is no vacuum in international relations. Other leaders occupied. Both emerging, non-populist leaders came to the fore, that is, they managed to govern, and we also had an increasing influence from China, which does not publicize, but is very present in our region. And the United States has been kicking ass since the beginning of the Trump administration, because they know they are losing global hegemony to China.
China doesn't publicize it, they have another way of working, but they are very present.
BBC News Brasil - And looking at this situation, of the United States losing hegemony, do you think that Trump can, in some way, interfere or act in this year's Brazilian election?
Bressan - Absolutely. I don't have concrete evidence about this, but I'm telling you because I've been around elections in other countries, been in contact with researchers from Uruguay, Venezuela, now I've been to Mexico, and you can't help but believe that there is no interference.
And there doesn't need to be direct interference. There is influence, pressure and this is very publicized, like when Flávio Bolsonaro went to the United States to play with tariffs. We know that our Pix is a threat in relation to the card brands, so there is this whole dynamic there.
But, that the United States will push for a candidate aligned with them, I have no doubt. They want to regain influence over us, because they know that they lost, on one hand, to China, and on the other, to the European Union, which must be increasingly present here. The European Union is not a threat to the United States, but it is on that board of forces of influence in the region.
BBC News Brazil - Especially now with the Mercosur-European Union agreement coming into force...
Bressan - Definitely.
In August last year [when Trump's first tariff rate had just come into force], I was in Brasília doing interviews on the topic of tariffs.
We spoke to some deputies and it was interesting that none of them, at that time, wanted to talk about the United States. But everyone said "look, we have to look for alternatives, we have to go to Mexico".
Then we went to the CNI [National Confederation of Industry], at Itamaraty, and the idea was the same: "Let's look for alternatives, let's look for a solution, let's not be held hostage by the United States or dueling with the United States."
BBC News Brazil - Faced with this situation, in a possible Lula victory again this year, he runs the risk of being isolated on the continent, in relation to the United States United?
Bressan - Well, let's remember what Brazil's strategy was like in the G20. We wanted to negotiate the Mercosur agreement with Europe. What did Brazil do? He used a great strategy. He called Milei to the G20, Milei went, said everything he wanted to say, Brazilian foreign policy welcomed Milei and then said: "Milei, so will you sign the document?"
And he did.
Foreign policy is pragmatic, and we are not going to isolate ourselves, because our foreign policy is pragmatic.
I gave the example of Milei, but this is what we are going to do with Colombia, with Venezuela. In other words, we don't agree with the election, but I haven't seen anyone from Itamaraty condemn it, isolate themselves, because we share a border, because we are a big country, because at any moment the United States can intervene or get involved in a conflict, and Brazil wants to be present in the region.
In fact, what we have been discussing at the integration congresses is to return to what the European Union had back in the 50s, which was functional integration. In other words, Germany and France, who were in conflict in World War II, no longer wanted to fight. What did they do? They shared the administration of steel and coal, essential for a war.
Infrastructure, road and highway policies in South America must continue, regardless of ideologies. And then we achieve a more functional integration, that is, based on functions, pragmatism and effective interests of our States.
I believe that the United States will continue to put pressure on our region and I think they will put pressure on the elections in Brazil. They will continue to put tension on the situation in Mexico. And, of course, we have to be very attentive to these extremist governments, because they are extremist governments that break with democracy.
BBC News Brasil - When you talk about tightening the Brazilian elections, what does that mean in practice? In what form does this tension come?
Bressan - In the form of tariffs, of considering criminal factions as terrorists, Big Techs, which Brazil wants to regulate, and criticism of Pix.
I think these four themes are already a great example of what we must face in the coming months in relation to the tension in the United States.
BBC News Brasil - And is there any conversation that Lula could have to remedy Trump's stance?
Bressan - Then we will enter into another arena that is Trump's sanity. He is very unstable, not pragmatic. I think the difficulty that Lula encounters is this, he meets Trump in one day, Trump likes it. Then the next time, you don't like it anymore. It's an instability that makes it very difficult.
[Robert] Keohane, a theorist from the 80s, who talks about the importance, after the Cold War, of creating and expanding organizations, says that it is important that I know how the other person will act. I have rules, because I know more or less how the other country will act and then I can have an economic plan, I can invest in industry to export, because I know that the other country will buy from me, I know that I can create a production chain.
Predictability of behavior is very important for international relations. And we are in a moment of failure, of shrinking, of retraction of these organizations.
The unpredictability, which doesn't let me know how countries will act, gives fear, generates insecurity among the population and also causes disbelief.
It's a cycle: a disbelief in politics, in traditional parties, which generates support for candidates with quick responses, and who flirt with a certain authoritarianism, because there is instability and instability generates insecurity that generates fear.
And then people tend to to leave the more traditional parties, to leave those politicians who have already governed before, to outsider candidates.
Why do some Americans see Latin America as the 'backyard of the USA'?
What was the last major US military intervention in Latin America like - and how does it compare to the current situation in Venezuela
Why are Brazilians not considered Latinos in the USA?

Source: G1