Treasury sees slowdown, but maintains GDP growth estimate of 2.3% in 2026

GDP increases by 1.1% in the first quarter
The Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance projected, this Friday (29), a slowdown in the pace of expansion of economic activity in the coming quarters.
Earlier, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.1% in the first quarter of this year. In current values, the Brazilian economy totaled R$ 3.3 trillion in the period.
Through an informative note, the SPE added that it continues to project growth of 2.3% for GDP in 2026, supported by the expansion of industry and services, despite the expected slowdown in agriculture.
"In the second and third quarters, growth at the margin should slow down, with the dissipation of the effect of public policies being partially offset by the reduction in the cost of In the fourth quarter, a recovery is expected as the manufacturing industry gains traction in response to the ongoing monetary easing [interest rate cut by the Central Bank], assessed the Ministry of Finance. 1.1% of GDP in the first three months of this year was marginally above its projection.
Informed, however, that the composition changed in relation to expectations: industry surprised positively, while services and agriculture were slightly below expectations.
"From the perspective of demand, the highlight of the first quarter was the strong recovery in gross fixed capital formation and the acceleration of household consumption. In the external sector, in turn, exports fell, while imports advanced, configuring a negative contribution from the external sector to growth in the quarter. The result indicates, therefore, that domestic absorption was the main driver of growth in the period, compensating the external sector", assessed the government.
International comparison
According to the government, among the countries of the G20 that have already released the GDP result for the first quarter of 2026, Brazil occupied the fourth position at the margin; the sixth position in the interannual comparison and the fifth position accumulated in four quarters.
International comparison (GDP first quarter 2026)
Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance

Source: G1