There is no fiscal space to end the 6×1 scale, says Gesner Oliveira

The debate about the end of the 6×1 scale and the reduction of working hours in Brazil gained a new critical analysis. Gesner Oliveira, columnist for CNN Money, assessed that the main problem with the proposal is not necessarily the merit of the change, but the process and pace at which the issue is being handled.

Oliveira highlighted that there are two times that are not communicating properly: the economic time, linked to well-being and growth, and the electoral time.

According to him, the measure is "obviously nice", as it proposes reducing working hours without changing salaries, which is equivalent to an increase in hourly wages.

"Coincidentally, in September or October, election time, workers will notice that there is a change in working hours that seems positive," he said.

However, the columnist warned that the planned transition period is excessively short. Unlike countries like the Netherlands, France and Sweden - economies with high productivity and high income - Brazil presents a different scenario.

"Here, in fact, you tend to maintain productivity and increase the hourly wage, reducing the demand for labor and reducing jobs", explained Oliveira.

Risk of half a million jobs
Based on a study using data from RAIS and IBGE's PNAD, Oliveira estimated an impact of loss of approximately half a million jobs, considering stagnant productivity. He highlighted that the growth rate of Brazilian productivity between 1990 and 2024 was less than 1% per year, while China registered 8% and India, 5% in the same period.

The columnist also recalled that Brazil has already carried out a similar experiment with the 1988 Constitution, when working hours were reduced from 48 to 44 hours per week. "There is no evidence of increased productivity that accompanied this reduction in working hours in the late 1980s," he said.

Oliveira also cited IPEA data indicating that around 87% of workers working more than 40 hours are in small and medium-sized companies, a segment for which IPEA itself recognizes a high cost impact.

No fiscal space for compensation
When asked about the possibility of the productive sector demanding compensation from the State, Oliveira acknowledged that it would be natural for this to occur, citing international experiences in which compensation was offered in the face of an increase in payroll costs. However, he was categorical: "There is no fiscal space."

As an alternative, the columnist defended the deepening of the debate based on technical evidence and highlighted the PEC for hours worked, authored by senator Rogério Marinho, as a promising proposal.

For Oliveira, the measure would be more in line with the trend of the modern job market, as it would allow greater flexibility in individual and collective negotiation of working hours. "Whatever comes as a rigid thing from Brasília for the entire country, for all sectors, is always something that won't work properly", he concluded.

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Source: CNN