The Great Debate: Lula with Jaques or Flávio with Michelle, who weighs more?
Businessman Leonardo Bortoletto and CNN commentator José Eduardo Cardozo debated, on Thursday (2), in O Grande Debate (from Monday to Friday, at 11pm), about "Lula with Jaques Wagner or Flávio Bolsonaro with Michelle: Which relationship weighs more?"
A survey by Atlas/Bloomberg revealed that the majority of those interviewed believe that the exposure of the crisis between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro weakens the senator's candidacy for President.
In another section, voters assessed whether Senator Jaques Wagner's (PT-BA) relationship with the Master case harms President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) campaign for re-election - and the majority also understands that it does.
According to survey data, 37.8% of those interviewed say that the crisis between Flávio and Michelle greatly weakens the senator's candidacy, while 26.3% say it weakens it a little. 22.4% consider that the conflict does not affect the candidacy, 7.1% believe that it strengthens it a lot and 2.1% that it strengthens it a little. Another 4.4% were unable to answer.
In the section on Jaques Wagner (PT) and the Master case, 32.4% consider that the situation greatly harms Lula's campaign, 28.8% say it harms it a little and 36.3% understand that there is no harm. Another 2.4% were unable to answer.
The survey interviewed 4,999 voters between June 26th and 30th, with a margin of error of one percentage point and a confidence level of 95%. The research was carried out with resources from the institute itself, registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).
Debate on the political weight of crises
Businessman Leonardo Bortoletto highlighted that, when analyzing the research carefully, one specific piece of data stands out: "just under 20% of Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) voters are considering voting for someone else, even if they are from the Bolsonaro family."
For him, this signals that the recent movements - including the definition of Gilberto Kassab (PSD) as vice-president in the candidacy of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) - are aimed precisely at the still undecided voter, "those who are neither Lulista nor Bolsonaro, the one who is about to be enchanted by some campaign".
Bortoletto assessed that both Jaques Wagner's (PT-BA) and Michelle Bolsonaro's friendly fire harm their respective campaigns and are a sign of what is yet to come, since the developments in the Banco Master case are not yet completely clear.
Commentator José Eduardo Cardozo defended a separate analysis between the two cases. According to him, from the point of view of potential political damage, Lula has an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
"First of all, Lula is not the one affected," said Cardozo, arguing that receiving a banker at a hearing - when he was not yet subject to any restrictive situation - is different from actively seeking financial resources from someone who already wore an electronic ankle bracelet.
"Flávio didn't receive the banker, no. He received money from the banker. He went to look for the banker after he was already wearing an electronic ankle bracelet", he stated.
Master case and Michelle's accusation
For Cardozo, Lula still has a relevant political argument: that he did not prevent Federal Police investigations against anyone, including members of the government itself. The case involving Michelle Bolsonaro represents an additional and exclusive problem for Flávio.
"Michele Bolsonaro frontally accused Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). A harsh, heavy accusation," said Cardozo, adding that there is no equivalent element affecting Lula in this sense.
Bortoletto, in turn, considered that, in a polarized environment, stating that none of the candidates can recover would be an exaggeration. However, he highlighted that both names have high rejections and that, if they remain as the main candidates, "the tiebreaker will be small".
He also recalled that whoever is in government is responsible for the issues of the moment - security, economy and corruption -, which represents an additional burden for Lula.
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Source: CNN