The Great Debate: Can abstention decide the presidential outcome in 2026?
CNN commentators José Eduardo Cardozo and Vinicius Poit debated, on Monday (29), in O Grande Debate (from Monday to Friday, at 11pm), about the "elections: can abstention decide the presidential result in 2026?"
A Nexus/BTG survey released on Monday raises a warning for the 2026 presidential race: voter abstention could be a determining factor in the outcome of the elections. The data indicates that Lula's supporters tend to turn out less at the polls than Flávio Bolsonaro's voters, which could compromise the advantage that the current president presents in second round simulations.
In the main second round projection, Lula appears with 47% of voting intentions against 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro. However, when the survey filters only voters who declared having attended the last two elections - the so-called most engaged electorate -, this difference drops to just one percentage point, with Lula at 46% and Flávio at 46%.
Abstention as a symptom of democratic crisis
For José Eduardo Cardozo, abstention should not be analyzed solely as a matter of electoral tactics. "Abstention is never good in any system, whether with mandatory voting or optional voting," he stated. According to him, a high level of abstention "shows a certain lack of commitment to the electoral system and indicates symptoms of a crisis, in a certain way, democratic".
Cardozo argued that all parties, candidates and the Electoral Court itself must promote campaigns to encourage turnout at the polls. For him, mobilizing voters is both a civic duty and, in Lula's case, a strategic necessity.
Cardozo also highlighted that the climate of polarization can, paradoxically, contribute to reducing abstention. "When I have a polarized climate, where you know that every vote is decisive, the voter will be touched," he argued. He considered that abstention is usually the result of lack of interest or the feeling that the individual vote does not matter - a feeling that tends to diminish in close elections.
Greater challenge for Lula in 2026
Vinícius Poit agreed that abstention could indeed decide the election and reinforced that the survey data reveal a concrete challenge for Lula. "The voter who will vote for Flávio went to the polls more in the last two elections than the voter who will vote for Lula", he observed. For Poit, this represents an additional obstacle in mobilizing the PT base.
Poit also brought to light the debate about the nature of mandatory voting in Brazil. According to him, the fine of R$ 3.51 provided for those who do not vote and do not justify their absence makes the system "almost optional in practice". He suggested that the country should either make voting effectively optional or increase penalties for those who fail to comply with the obligation.
In addition, Poit pointed out that Lula faces a more difficult scenario than in 2022, when he could mobilize the electorate with an anti-Bolsonaro speech. "Now, the population will evaluate the result. And if interest rates remain high, if inflation is coming, the population is watching it in their pockets", he concluded.
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Source: CNN