Soybeans rise in Chicago after USDA reinforces heated demand scenario
In this Friday's session (10), the soybean futures contract for delivery in November closed the session on the Chicago Stock Exchange quoted at US$ 11.81 per bushel, with an appreciation of 0.78%.
The July world supply and demand report from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) did not bring any major surprises to the market. Still, the document was interpreted as positive by investors and opened space for a recovery in prices, as the focus returns to the weather conditions that are expected to influence the development of the North American harvest in the coming weeks.
According to analysis by Royal Rural, the report was favorable for both soybeans and corn, not due to significant changes in production, but due to adjustments in demand and final stocks, which boosted prices in Chicago.
In the case of soybeans, price support came mainly from the demand side. The USDA raised the production estimate for the new United States harvest to 121.79 million tons, but also increased the export projection to 45.18 million tons. Even with a larger harvest, North American ending stocks were maintained at 8.44 million tons, unchanged from the June report and below the 8.98 million tons projected for the current season.
China was also in the spotlight. The USDA revised upward its forecast for Chinese soybean imports for the new crop to 115 million tonnes, one million tonnes above the June estimate and higher than the 113 million tonnes forecast for the current season. The consumption projection in the Asian country was also raised to 136 million tons, reinforcing the perception of a stronger demand and in line with recent purchases of North American soybeans.
Although global production was raised to 441.70 million tons, the USDA also increased import, consumption and export estimates. As a result, global ending stocks were reduced from 124.88 million to 124.17 million tons, a factor that contributed to sustaining the rise in oilseed prices.
Corn
The corn futures contract due in December closed the session at US$4.61 per bushel, up 1.99% on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
According to analysis by Royal Rural, the main factor supporting prices was the revision of United States figures in the USDA supply and demand report. For the 2025/26 harvest, the agency increased the domestic consumption estimate by 3.17 million tons, bringing total demand to 421.15 million tons.
As the production projection was maintained at 432.34 million tons, the adjustment reduced ending stocks from 54.48 million to 51.31 million tons.
For the 2026/27 harvest, North American production remained practically stable, estimated at 406.42 million tons. However, the reduction of 3.17 million tons in initial stocks, combined with the increase of 1.27 million tons in exports, reinforced the prospect of tighter supply.
As a result, ending stocks in the United States were revised downwards, from 49.78 million to 45.46 million tons, a movement that supported cereal prices.
Wheat
The wheat futures contract for delivery in September closed the session this Friday (10) quoted at US$ 6.40 per bushel, with an appreciation of 3.31% on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
According to Agrinvest, the USDA's supply and demand report reinforced the upward movement in prices, but the main impulse came from the geopolitical scenario. Since the opening of the market, contracts have already advanced due to reports of interruptions in traffic in the Kerch Strait and the possibility of closing the Azov-Don Canal, strategic routes for transporting wheat exports from Russia. The prospect of logistical restrictions has raised concerns about global cereal supply and provided additional support to prices in Chicago.
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Source: CNN