Real Time: Derrite, Tebet and Marina lead race for Senate in SP

According to the new Real Time Big Data survey released this Tuesday (16), Guilherme Derrite (PP), Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) are leading the race for the Senate in the state of São Paulo.

There were three scenarios simulated by the institute. In the first of them, the former Secretary of Public Security of São Paulo, Guilherme Derrite, leads with 17%, in a three-way technical tie with the former Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet, who scores 16%; and former Environment Minister Marina Silva, with 14%.

Marina also appears technically tied with Ricardo Salles (Novo), who has 12%; and André do Prado (PL), with 10%. Paulinho da Força (Solidarity) closes the list, with 7%.

Those who would vote blank or null in this scenario total 11%, while those who are undecided, 13%.

In a second scenario, with Márcio França (PSB) in Marina Silva's place, Derrite and Tebet tie with 17% of voting intentions each. The two pre-candidates are followed by another tie between Ricardo Salles and Márcio França, both with 12%. In addition to the tie, the two candidates still appear technically tied with André do Prado and Paulinho da Força, who have 10% and 8%, respectively.

Those who would vote null or blank total 11%, while those who are undecided, 13%.

In the third and final scenario simulated by the institute, this time with Márcio França replacing Simone Tebet, Guilherme Derrite appears technically tied with Marina Silva. The former secretary scores 17%, while the former minister scores 15%. Next, Ricardo Salles and Márcio França tied again, with 12% each. They repeat the same scenario of a technical draw, with André do Prado, who adds 10%, and Paulinho da Força, who ends the list with 8%.

Voters who would vote blank or null appear at 12%, while those who are undecided, at 14%.

Methodology
Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters across the state of São Paulo, between the 13th and 15th of June. The survey's margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence interval.

The research was carried out with resources from the institute itself and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol SP-09734/2026.

Read the full research

Source: CNN