Real Time Big Data: Marília and Miguel lead Senate race for PE

The Real Time Big Data Institute released this Thursday (11) a new survey with three scenarios about the race for the Senate in Pernambuco. Former federal deputy Marília Arraes (PDT) leads two of them and has a technical tie with Miguel Coelho (União Brasil).

In the first scenario simulated by the institute, Marília leads with 26% of voting intentions and is followed by senator Humberto Costa (PT), who has 19% for the second place in the Upper House. Technically tied with Costa is Mendonça Filho (PL), who has 16% and is also tied by margin of error with Túlio Gadelha (PSD) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), who have 13% and 12% respectively. Paulo Rubem (Rede) closes the list with 4%.

Those who would vote blank or null amount to 4%, while those who are undecided, 6%.

In the second scenario tested, Marília appears with 25%, numerically ahead, but technically tied with Miguel Coelho (União Brasil), who has 21%. Next come Mendonça Filho, with 16%, Humberto Costa, with 15%, and Tulio Gadelha, with 12%, all technically tied for third place. Paulo Rubem closes the list again with 4%.

Those who would vote blank or null amount to 3%, while those who are undecided, 4%.

In the last simulated scenario, Marília scores 28%, the biggest advantage between the scenarios. Next come Humberto Costa, with 19%, Mendonça Filho, with 18%, and Tulio Gadelha, with 15%, all technically tied. Fernando Dueire (PSD), with 5%, and Paulo Rubem, with 4%, close the list.

Voters who would vote blank or invalid amount to 4%, while those who are undecided, 7%.

Methodology
The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 1,600 voters in Pernambuco, between the 9th and 10th of June. The survey's margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence interval. The research was carried out with resources from the institute itself and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol PE-09426/2026.

Check out the full research

Source: CNN