Professor: War in Iran was damaging to Trump's domestic popularity

The war in Iran proved extremely damaging to the domestic popularity of American President Donald Trump. This is the assessment of Carlos Gustavo Poggio, professor of Political Science at Berea College, to WW.

For Poggio, conflict resolution efforts emerge as an attempt to minimize accumulated political damage.

According to the professor, unlike other historical conflicts, the war against Iran already started unpopular among the North American population.

"This war is a war that started out unpopular and became more unpopular as it went on," said Poggio. He highlighted that the numbers prove the negative impact on Trump's approval rating.

Comparison with the Iraq war
Poggio drew a parallel with the conflict in Iraq, remembering that the Bush administration made efforts to convince the population of the need for that war and even obtained support from sectors of the Democratic Party.

"There was the trauma of September 11th", the professor contextualized, highlighting that the current scenario is "very different".

For him, the common pattern of these conflicts is that, over time, wars become progressively more unpopular and, therefore, politically more costly for the president.

Iran in a more comfortable position in negotiations
In Poggio's assessment, the one demonstrating the greatest urgency for an agreement is the North American side, not the Iranian one.

"The Trump administration is the one desperate for a deal here, not Iran," he declared.

The professor explained that Trump seeks, with the agreement, to remove the issue from the agenda, obtain some immediate impact on the price of oil and, thus, "stop this political bleeding."

Poggio also weighed in on Iranian nuclear guarantees, recalling that Iran has signed commitments not to develop nuclear weapons since the non-proliferation treaty in the 1970s.

"The big problem is not Iran writing a paragraph, signing a document saying that it will not develop nuclear weapons. It is how this will be guaranteed and verified over time," he said.

Perspective for the midterm elections
Despite the diplomatic moves, the professor was skeptical about the long-term effects of the agreement on the "midterm" elections.

For Poggio, the economic issue continues to be the central issue for the North American electorate.

"The economic malaise of the North American population put Trump back in power with the hope that he could resolve this issue, and he is not doing so", he assessed.

The political prognosis for Republicans in November, according to him, is "very bad", regardless of the outcome of the Iran deal.

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Source: CNN