Peru's new president will face legitimacy challenges, says expert
The partial results of Peru's presidential elections point to a victory for left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez over conservative Keiko Fujimori.
The scenario, however, is marked by an extremely fierce vote dispute and a history of profound political instability in the country.
In an interview with Hora H, Thiago Vidal, director of political analysis at Prospectiva, assessed that the next Peruvian president will face serious questions about the legitimacy of his mandate.
"Whoever wins will have a mandate problem, that is, the legitimacy effectively given by the polls for an eventual package of reforms, as has been the case in recent years", stated Vidal.
Majority opposition Congress represents an obstacle
In addition to the challenge of legitimacy, Vidal highlighted that the new president will have to deal with a Congress dominated by the right-wing opposition, including Keiko Fujimori's own party.
According to the expert, although parliamentary fragmentation fell drastically after the first round - making Peru one of the countries with the lowest fragmentation in Congress in Latin America - right-wing parties remain in the majority.
"If Roberto Sánchez wins, he will not only have a legitimacy problem, but also the capacity he will have to put this agenda up for discussion in Congress, which will once again also be a bicameral congress", he explained.
Vidal also highlighted the country's historical instability, which has seen nine presidents in ten years and an alarming ministerial turnover.
"More or less one minister falls every five days in Peru, that is, it is not a crisis that extends only to the presidency, but to the entire government", said the analyst.
The low turnout of voters in the election further reinforces the scenario of institutional fragility.
Vote reversal trend favors Sánchez
When asked whether Sánchez would confirm the victory, Vidal explained the dynamics of the Peruvian count.
The votes counted first are those from the Lima region and the metropolitan area, while votes from the Andean region and abroad - which tend to favor the left-wing candidate - arrive later.
"The difference between Pedro Sánchez is now very similar in the percentage of votes that Castillo had, and this trend is also repeated, in which, in the second round, there is a reversal of votes, with Keiko Fujimori winning for the candidate who represents the left", analyzed Vidal.
Latin America is experiencing a right-wing "blue wave", but for cyclical reasons
In a broader overview of the region, Vidal assessed that South America is going through what he called a "blue wave", with left and center-left governments elected during the pandemic being replaced by center-right, right-wing and, in some cases, extreme-right governments.
For the expert, however, this movement does not reflect an ideological preference of Latin American voters.
"What is happening is that the left-wing governments that are leaving or have left were defeated at the polls because they promised a lot and managed to deliver little," he said.
Vidal cited the case of Chile as an emblematic example.
According to him, the government elected with great hope of renewal and promises of a new constitution saw two constitutional projects rejected, which generated a perception of deterioration and culminated in the election of an extreme right-wing government.
"It's not an ideological preference, it seems to me that it's a tiredness and an irritation with the time of politics, which is much slower than the expectations that Latin Americans actually have", he concluded.
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Source: CNN