Oil crisis will stop interest rate cuts in Brazil, says researcher

The conflict in the Middle East continues to have relevant effects on the global economy. The disruption of important trade routes has boosted the prices of oil and other commodities, fueling inflationary pressures and increasing volatility in financial markets around the world.

The reflections already appear on the indicators. Data released by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) shows that annual consumer inflation in member countries accelerated from 4% in March to 4.4% in April.

For Tatiana Pinheiro, economic consultant and researcher at FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas), the impacts of the oil crisis have already become permanent for the Brazilian economy in 2026. According to her, the main consequence was the reduction of space for additional cuts in the basic interest rate.

"The great effect of this oil crisis for Brazil was the reduction in the size of the interest rate cut that was possible to make in the economy this year", he says.

According to the economist, the market began to price, at most, another reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the Selic, possibly at the June meeting of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee).

At the beginning of the year, some analysts projected that the base rate could end 2026 close to 12%. Now, the expectation is that it will remain between 14% and 14.25%.

"Even if the war ended today, I believe that this space for cutting interest rates, at least this year, is already gone", he points out.

In the researcher's assessment, a more significant reduction in the Selic should be scheduled for 2027.

Oil remains a central factor in inflation
Pinheiro highlights that the trajectory of oil prices will continue to be decisive for global inflation. According to estimates from international institutions cited by the economist, if the conflict were ended immediately, the barrel could return to the range between US$65 and US$70 in the third quarter.

Without a concrete solution to the crisis, however, the tendency is for prices to remain high, varying between US$90 and US$110 per barrel.

"Oil is part of almost all important production chains that we have today", he states.

The researcher recalls that the input is used not only in the production of fuels, but also in the manufacture of fertilizers, agricultural pesticides, plastics, solvents and even some types of fabrics, increasing its effects on prices in the economy.

Search for alternatives
When analyzing ways to reduce dependence on oil and logistical bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz, Tatiana Pinheiro draws a parallel with the energy crisis of the 1970s.

During that period, Brazil invested in the development of Pro-Alcool, while countries like France and Germany increased investments in nuclear energy to reduce their vulnerability to oil.

"Countries looked for ways to reduce this dependence."

For the current scenario, the economist assesses that the electrification of the economy is emerging as one of the main alternatives and tends to gain even more strength in the face of recent shocks in the energy markets.

On the other hand, she warns of another side effect of the crisis: the increase in public debt.

According to the researcher, several governments have increased spending to protect their economies from the impacts of rising oil prices, a movement that was also recently highlighted by the OECD as a factor of concern for the coming years.

Oil spike: See measures that countries are taking to combat prices

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Source: CNN