Oil closes slightly higher with uncertainty about Hormuz on the radar
Oil futures contracts closed slightly higher this Thursday (2), but were trading around pre-conflict levels, with investors monitoring progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran and uncertainty about the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
Traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), WTI oil for August closed up 0.16% (US$0.11), at US$68.69 per barrel. Brent for September rose 0.32% (US$ 0.23), to US$ 71.80 per barrel, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in London (ICE).
On Wednesday night, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said Qatari and Pakistani mediators had concluded separate meetings with American and Iranian negotiators in Doha, citing "positive progress."
For MUFG, oil prices will likely remain under downward pressure as supplies normalize and geopolitical risk premiums decline.
Doubts about the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz, however, continue. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central General Headquarters said on Thursday (2) that any US "intervention" in the Strait would generate a "quick and decisive" response from the armed forces. Additionally, some European powers now appear to accept that ships transiting Hormuz will have to pay duties to Iran and Oman, according to Bloomberg.
Without progress on Iran's nuclear program and an agreement on related groups such as Hezbollah, the risks of escalation remain high, warns XS.com.
Morgan Stanley, in turn, estimates that, to balance the market in 2027, flows from the Strait of Hormuz only need to reach 65% of the pre-war level. The bank's forecast is for Brent to reach US$75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and fall to US$70 at the end of next year.
Even with the conflict still without a definitive resolution, projections for the price of oil at the end of 2026 and 2027, made by different houses, have indicated a downward trend. They vary in intensity, but follow the same direction. Meanwhile, the United States Department of Energy (DoE) maintains expectations for higher prices.
*With information from Dow Jones Newswires
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Source: CNN