Nexus/BTG: Lula has 42% of voting intentions in the 1st round; Flávio, 34%

According to the new round of the Nexus/BTG survey released this Monday (29), President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 42% of voting intentions in the first round of the re-election dispute, compared to 34% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

Next, there are a series of ties in the margin of error. The former governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) appears with 5%; the coordinator of MBL (Movimento Brasil Livre), Renan Santos (Missão), with 4%; and former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), with 3%.

Former STF minister Joaquim Barbosa (DC), writer Augusto Cury (Avante), federal deputy Aécio Neves (PSDB) and former deputy Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) complete the first scenario and each scored 1%.

Of the total number of respondents, those who would vote blank, null, or would not vote for any of the possible candidates amount to 5%, while 3% do not know or did not respond.

The institute also tested a second scenario without candidates Augusto Cury, Aécio Neves and Cabo Daciolo. In this, Lula continues with 42% of voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro oscillates at 35%. The scenario is completed by Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, with 5% each; Romeu Zema with 3% and Joaquim Barbosa with 2%.

Another 5% respond that they would not vote for any of the candidates presented or would vote blank or invalid, while 3% do not know or did not respond.

Methodology
Nexus/BTG interviewed 2,009 voters, between June 26th and 28th, via telephone interview. The survey's margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence interval.

The research was contracted by BTG Pactual and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-08521/2026.

Check out the full research

Source: CNN