New US tariffs could increase exports from Brazil to China
The United States loses space in Brazil's trade balance, while China sees Brazilian exports grow, strengthening itself as Brazil's largest trading partner.
With the possibility of imposing new tariffs, the balance tends to remain in favor of the Asian country, say experts interviewed by CNN Money.
The loss of US participation in trade with Brazil occurs amid tariffs that came into force in the second half of last year and the possibility of imposing new taxes.
Last week, the USTR (United States Trade Representative) proposed the imposition of 25% tariffs on Brazil due to the conclusions of the trade investigation under Section 301.
The USTR also included Brazil on the list of countries with a recommendation to impose tariffs of 12.5% for failing, in the United States' view, to combat forced labor.
Another 59 countries were indicated on this list, with tariffs that can vary between 10% and 12.5%.
According to data from Brazil's trade balance, in the first five months of the year, shipments of goods from Brazil to the USA fell by 16.02%, compared to the same period in 2025.
Last year, the export value was US$16.6 billion, while in 2026, the value fell to US$14.01 billion.
The total US participation in the Brazilian trade balance also fell, falling from 12.21% from January to May 2025, to 9.43% this year.
In the case of China, from January to May 2026, Brazil's exports to the country grew 21.82%, compared to 2025.
The value exported to the Asian country jumped from US$ 37.9 billion last year, to US$ 46.2 billion this year. The total share of exports also grew, from 27.78% to 31.14%.
The specialist in Foreign Trade and professor of International Relations at UFT (Federal University of Tocantins), Jan Marcel Lacerda, assesses that with the new tariff, trade between Brazil and the USA should follow the downward trend, and a consequent deepening in Sino-Brazilian relations.
"We see the ore, that one of the big issues is that of rare earths and the possibilities that it brings to the war industry, to the development of China, to technological development. Brazil has the second largest reserves in the world and the United States is keeping an eye on this, as China also already has a clear export relationship for these ores", he points out.
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The professor also warns about the possibility of greater interest from China in investments within Brazil to use these natural resources and also further deepen this commercial relationship.
In addition to the strengthening with China, data on the Brazilian trade balance also point to the expansion of Brazil's bilateral trade. In the first five months of this year, exports from Brazil to India grew 70.22% compared to 2025.
Brazil has also diversified its import markets. South Korea, for example, recorded a 138.68% increase in purchases of goods. From January to May this year, Brazil imported US$5.31 billion from the Asian country, compared to US$2.2 billion last year.
The founding partner of the BMJ consultancy and former Secretary of Foreign Trade, Welber Barral, points out that Brazil and Mercosur have been working to expand markets.
He recalls that after last year's tariffs, Brazil signed trade agreements with Indonesia and EFTA (European Free Trade Association).
"What the United States doesn't see is that these barriers end up reducing the relative relevance of the United States in relation to Brazil and forcing Brazilian companies and the government to look for new agreements and new markets", he assesses.
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Source: CNN