Loss of US support is a greater risk for Israel, professor tells WW

The possible loss of support from the United States represents the main strategic risk for Israel on the international stage, according to an assessment by Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira, professor of Economics at FAAP (Fundação Armando Alvares Penteado) and International Relations at FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas), in an interview with WW Especial, on CNN Brasil.

When analyzing the challenges faced by the Israeli State, Vieira, who also teaches at the IDP (Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research), stated that internal issues, such as the demographic changes underway in the country, are relevant, but not sufficient, in isolation, to threaten its continuity.

"The big risk is on the other side of the North Atlantic," he said. According to him, a possible change in the American political environment could significantly reduce the historic support given to Israel by Washington.

Vieira highlighted that surveys indicate growing resistance among Democratic voters to the United States' unrestricted support for the Israeli government. "Up to three-quarters of Democratic voters are against, I won't say absolutely, but they are at least critically supportive of the United States continuing to support Israel," he said.

The professor also drew attention to transformations within the Republican base linked to MAGA (Make America Great Again), a political movement founded by Trump.

According to him, there is a relevant identity component in this group, associated with the idea of returning to an America defined by white, Anglo-Saxon and Protestant values.

"There's this whole debate about Jews being considered white or not in the American context. Until 1945, they were super excluded from universities, couldn't get into the most prestigious institutions and were totally isolated from the American mainstream," he explained.

In the expert's assessment, both Democrats and Republicans could, for different reasons, represent challenges for the relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv in the future.

"If the Democrats return to power, there will be this opposition in another way. The idea that Israel is no longer a reliable ally because it wants, first and foremost, to satisfy extremely ideological and religious interests", he highlighted.

At the same time, he argued that sectors of the American conservative movement could also review their position in relation to Israel based on a political agenda increasingly focused on internal identity issues.

"The risk is on both sides. Both the Republican path and the Democratic path are unpromising for Israel, if the country continues in this vein", he assessed.

Finally, Vieira highlighted that demographic changes in Israel increase the incentives to maintain the country's current political trajectory. According to him, the Israeli Orthodox population has grown rapidly in recent decades.

"Today the Orthodox population would be 14% to 15%, whereas at the beginning of the century it was 7%. In other words, it has doubled in 25 years and continues to increase", he concluded.

WW Special
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