Less than 5 months before the election, Lulinha weighs in for Lula; Vorcaro, for Flavio

Less than five months before the first round of the 2026 presidential elections, the two main candidates for the Palácio do Planalto face damage to their image due to recent episodes.

While President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) tries to contain the damage from the case involving his son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, identified as benefiting from the theft of INSS pensions, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) has started to deal in recent weeks with the advancement of revelations about his relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro.

Initiated by the PF (Federal Police) last year, Operation Without Discount revealed a scheme of embezzlement in the transfer of benefits paid to INSS retirees and pensioners. After the investigations progressed, Congress installed a CPMI (Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) to monitor the case and investigate the actions of businessmen, lobbyists and public agents involved in the scheme.

Since the beginning of the year, the PL began to focus on a strategy of directly associating Lula with investigations involving his son. In February, the CPMI approved the breaking of Lulinha's banking and tax secrecy after mentions that he could have benefited from the scheme investigated by the Federal Police. Before the collegiate's decision, Minister André Mendonça, of the STF (Supreme Federal Court), had already ordered the breach of confidentiality.

Behind the scenes, the case involving Lulinha generated concern in the PT. Party members began to assess that the opposition was trying to reconstruct a narrative of corruption linked to the president's family environment, reviving a discourse explored in previous elections.

In response, PT members began to invest in content for social networks comparing Lula's stance in the face of the accusations against his son with that of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the episodes involving Flávio Bolsonaro.

The president also tried to shield himself politically from the case. Lula publicly stated that, "if there is anything", Lulinha will have to "pay the price".

The PL movement was not restricted to the INSS case. In recent weeks, Flávio Bolsonaro's allies have tried to associate the Lula government with the Banco Master scandal, especially given the fact that names linked to the left appear in investigations involving Daniel Vorcaro. Members of the Bahia PT were cited in the investigations, increasing pressure on the government.

The case, however, also ended up affecting important figures in the Bolsonaro camp. Reports revealed that investigators linked to Banco Master made millionaire donations to the campaigns of Jair Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas in 2022. Furthermore, the Federal Police identified references to monthly payments of R$300,000 to R$500,000 attributed to senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI).

The situation gained a new dimension after the release of an audio in which Flávio Bolsonaro negotiates a transfer of R$ 134 million directly with Vorcaro, owner of the now liquidated Banco Master, to finance a film about former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Days later, information came to light that Flávio met with Vorcaro after the former banker's arrest in November 2025, when he was arrested for the first time, as part of Operation Compliance Zero. The PL pre-candidate stated that the visit would aim to put a "final point" in negotiations on financing the film.

The episode caused discomfort within the PL itself, increasing internal questions and with some party parliamentarians starting to admit a fear of being contaminated by the crisis that surrounds the senator. Some names even questioned Flávio's permanence in the presidential race.

Although many Bolsonaro supporters have committed themselves to defending Flávio on social media, those around the senator predict more internal clashes in the event of more facts linking Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son to Daniel Vorcaro. There are also mentions of the risk of the crisis affecting the PL's ability to elect a large bench in the National Congress.

The wear coincided with electoral polls released last week showing a drop in Flávio Bolsonaro's voting intentions. Behind the scenes of the party, leaders began to show concern about the electoral potential of the crisis and once again discussed the name of former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) as a possible competitive alternative for the presidential race.

This week's electoral polls reflected a deterioration in Flávio's image. The Datafolha survey released last Friday (22) shows that Lula has 47% of voting intentions against 43% for Flávio in a possible second round in the dispute for Planalto.

The scenario differs from the Datafolha survey released on May 13, which showed the two candidates numerically tied with 45% of voting intentions, while those who would vote blank, null or for neither would total 9%.

Elections 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro insists on associating the Master case with Lula | CNN 360º

Source: CNN