It is difficult for Lula to reverse the US classification on PCC and CV, says Arko

The United States' classification of the PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital) and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations is unlikely to be reversed by the Brazilian government in the short term. The assessment is from Thiago de Aragão, CEO of Arko Advice Internacional, in an interview with Hora H.

According to Thiago, the situation involves both the real possibility of sanctions and an instrument of pressure in negotiations between the two countries.

According to Aragão, the sanctions would not be applied directly to the Brazilian government, but rather to the country's financial system.

"You end up seeing a Brazilian bank being sanctioned because of something indirect," he said.

He explained that the American interpretation is subjective and does not follow a clear pre-established script, which creates uncertainty for the banking sector.

Critical minerals as a negotiating currency
The expert highlighted that the United States has a strategic interest in Brazilian critical minerals, which gives Brazil significant weight in this dispute.

Aragão recalled that China has 51 million m³ of reserves, while Brazil has 21 million, far ahead of other countries.

"Brazil is a very important player in this," he said. According to him, the US sees Brazil as the "balancer" capable of balancing access to these reserves in relation to China.

Aragão considered that the tariffs imposed on Brazil were not enough to force negotiations, since Brazilian exports to the USA correspond to around 10% of the total, with half exempt from tariffs.

"For the first time, the American government is putting something on the table that could increase pressure on the Brazilian government to negotiate", he assessed, referring to the classification of criminal groups as terrorist organizations.

Possibility of reversal depends on concrete advances
When asked about the possibility of reversing the classification, Aragão was cautious.

"It's very difficult, because the reason would have to be very strong", he declared.

He pointed out that, in theory, a cooperation agreement in the area of organized crime, combined with advances in the issue of critical minerals, could open space for Donald Trump to back down on the denomination.

"You can say that this cooperation is working so well that he no longer sees the need to classify them as terrorist groups", he exemplified.

The expert also revealed that the decision to publish the classification was the result of an internal dispute within the American government.

According to Aragão, the Treasury Department, in Washington, was initially against the measure, due to the pressure it generates on American banks that operate together with Brazilian institutions.

"This was a tussle between the State Department and the Treasury Department," he said.

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Source: CNN