Is the European Union prepared to welcome new member countries?

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Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters
Meeting earlier this month with European Union (EU) foreign ministers, European Commissioner Marta Kos said that enlarging the bloc was the bloc's priority. "If our candidates deliver results, we will also have to deliver," said she, in charge of the department that handles the issue, in Brussels.
Shortly before, in April, the bloc had created, for the first time in 17 years, a working group to draft the accession treaty for a candidate country, Montenegro. For Kos, this was proof that the bloc was going beyond rhetoric.
"There is no clearer sign that the EU sees Montenegro as its next member state," says Strahinja Subotic, program manager and senior researcher at the Center for European Policy (CEP) in Belgrade.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has put EU enlargement back at the center of European politics. What had long been a technical process gained new contours in terms of security.
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"The geopolitical need for enlargement is recognized by all Member States", says Steven Blockmans, researcher at the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS). "But it is always accompanied by two elements: on the one hand, a merit-based approach, in which candidate countries are evaluated for their reforms and do not receive shortcuts. On the other, the need for the European Union to change its policies and governance methods."
Membership model under discussion
The debate in Brussels has increasingly focused not only on enlargement itself, but also on defining whether the bloc's traditional membership model is still appropriate.
"What we are discussing now with the Member States is whether the principles of gradual integration, which we mainly use in the single market, could also be applied to other areas, especially security," Kos added.
In a recent proposal, German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed a form of "association" that would bring Ukraine closer to the EU even before full membership. This would include participation in European institutions and foreign and security policy.
At the same time, Merz suggested granting Western Balkan countries and Moldova privileged access to the EU single market, observer status in European bodies, and gradual integration into decision-making processes to accelerate the path towards membership. Ideas like these have been circulating in Brussels and European capitals for years.
According to Blockmans, one of the authors of the "staged accession" model, some of its elements gradually entered mainstream EU thinking, including through proposals put forward by France, Germany and Lithuania. "We see elements of a more gradual approach, in which reform benefits are offered at stages prior to accession," said the CEPS expert.
Domestic resistance
At the same time, some of the most ambitious ideas for Ukraine have already faced resistance. Among them is the so-called "reverse enlargement", supported by the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski, and sectors of the European Commission.
Under the proposal, countries like Ukraine would first formally enter the EU and then complete reforms. Member states quickly rejected it.
One of the most sensitive questions surrounding future enlargement: how much decision-making power new member states should have from the start, especially in areas where EU decisions still require unanimity. In Brussels, the controversial possibility of temporarily limiting the veto rights of new Member States after accession is being circulated.
According to Subotic, another co-author of the approach, the objective would not be to create a "second-class association", as some critics claim. But rather, reassuring skeptical member states that enlargement would not paralyze the Union.
He argues that restrictions could be limited in both time and scope. "This could only apply to one or two policy areas and not necessarily in the same way or for the same period for all candidate countries," said Subotic, another co-author of the phased approach.
Montenegro serves as testbed
From a legal point of view, according to Blockmans, such a mechanism could be included in accession treaties. Politically, however, the issue remains highly sensitive, as it touches on topics such as sovereignty and equal rights among member states.
Still, several countries in the Western Balkans have already signaled openness. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia have suggested that they would accept temporary veto limitations if this would help unlock accession.
Montenegro, for its part, does not want delays or transitional arrangements. Analysts say the country will likely be the last to join the EU under the bloc's current rules, before any deeper institutional reforms.
At the same time, its membership could serve as a testing ground for some of the new enlargement mechanisms currently debated in Brussels.
"Montenegro can be expected to become the guinea pig for exploring the limits of transitional arrangements and safeguard clauses," Blockmans told DW. For him, the accession treaty currently being drafted could become a model for future enlargements of the Union.
Subotic hopes that the EU will use the opportunity to introduce more robust post-accession monitoring tools than in previous rounds of enlargement, especially in areas such as the rule of law and democratic setbacks.

Source: G1