Iran bets on the cost of war for Trump and plays with time, says professor
The Iranians announced their withdrawal from the negotiating table following Israel's military actions in Lebanon, while American President Donald Trump stated that he "couldn't care less" about a possible agreement, even negotiating indirectly with Hezbollah through the Lebanese president.
For political scientist and professor of International Relations at the University of São Paulo (USP) Feliciano de Sá Guimarães to WW, the Iranian stance is part of a deliberate strategy.
"The announcement that they would withdraw from the negotiation due to the attacks on Hezbollah is part of the Iranian strategy of postponing the negotiation for as long as possible," said Feliciano.
Strategy of attrition
According to the expert, Tehran is counting on three factors to weaken the American position: Trump's impatience, the approach of midterm American elections and the domestic cost of the war for the United States.
"Iran is looking to gain time to improve its bargaining chips as negotiations progress," explained Feliciano.
In his assessment, American attacks continue, but without the same scale as in previous months.
Feliciano listed the themes that he considers already consolidated in the negotiations.
Among them are a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with normalization of maritime traffic, a reduction or partial lifting of the American naval blockade, some economic relief for Tehran - whether through the easing of sanctions or the unfreezing of Iranian assets in the international financial system - and the resumption of Iranian exports to levels close to pre-war levels.
On the other hand, Tehran systematically seeks the withdrawal of American troops from the geographic surroundings of Iran, which, according to Feliciano, should not happen.
The United States, in turn, continues to press for a resolution of the nuclear issue, which includes the fate of the 400kg of enriched uranium that Iran already possesses - whether they would be removed by American troops, transferred to another country or destroyed within Iranian territory.
Strategic defeat for the US and Israel?
Feliciano warned that a normalization of the Strait of Hormuz with some remaining Iranian control over the waterway - something that did not exist before the war - would already represent "a strategic defeat for the United States and Israel as well."
Furthermore, without the resolution of the nuclear issue, which would be postponed until the future, it will be difficult for Trump to sell this result internally, if this trend is confirmed in the negotiations.
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Source: CNN