Investors follow new pricing with more moderate reaction

The new proposed 25% tariffs on imported products on the recommendation of the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has generated tension over a new global trade war.

A study by the FIA Business School estimates that the new measures could cause a loss of up to R$38 billion in Brazilian consumption and affect US$9.5 billion in industrial exports. According to the projection, the impact could also reduce Brazilian GDP growth by up to 0.6%.

The proposal presented by the United States still goes through political and regulatory stages before actually coming into force. Trump has until July 15 to decide on the definition and application of tariffs.

According to Marilia Fontes, presenter of Resenha do Dinheiro, the moment is considered delicate for Brazil, as much of the support for economic activity comes from agribusiness and exports.

"An imposition of tariffs further harms growth that is already fragile and concentrated, in addition to causing consequences for employment and consumption", observes Marilia.

In addition to the economic impacts, the market also follows the uncertainty about the effective implementation of the measures. This is because the first major tariff package announced by Trump, in 2025, had setbacks, flexibilities and changes over the months.

"At first, there was a very fearful reaction, but then investors saw part of the measures more as rhetoric than something actually practical", says Bernardo Pascowitch, founder and CEO of Yubb.

For Thiago Godoy, financial educator, there is still a doubt about to what extent Trump is bluffing or whether he really intends to implement all these measures.

"The market started to take part of the speech more seriously, but this movement of announcing and then retreating also undermines its credibility", he adds.

In this scenario, trade agreements and economic alliances gain strength. The advancement of negotiations between Mercosur and the European Union, in addition to strengthening the BRICS, is seen as a path to reducing economic dependence on the United States.

American inflation also remains on the radar of global investors. With high real estate and food prices, concern is growing about the population's loss of purchasing power.

Another effect noticed by the market is the devaluation of the dollar in recent months.

"This movement has already been observed, with investors withdrawing resources from the USA and seeking opportunities in other geographies, such as the Brazilian stock market", explains Marilia Fontes.

Despite this, Godoy considers that the movement does not eliminate the importance of the dollar within an international diversification strategy.

"What this does not mean is that investors should stop looking at the dollar, as it continues to be a strong currency. This scenario can change quickly and, with the American currency at a lower level, many investors see an opportunity to expand international exposure", concludes Thiago.

Dinheiro Review
Carried out with the support of B3 and the investment manager BlackRock, the program is presented by Thiago Godoy, the "Financial Daddy", Marilia Fontes, founding partner of Nord Investimentos; Bernardo Pascowitch, founder and CEO of Yubb, proposes a light, direct and uncomplicated approach to topics related to financial education and investments. The attraction addresses the main themes of the economy weekly with the informality of a conversation between friends - without compromising on analysis.

The Money Review airs every Friday, at 7pm, on the CNN Money YouTube channel and on Sundays, at 3pm, on CNN Brasil.

Source: CNN