Humidity and rain threaten coffee quality in Minas Gerais

Rain and storms in strategic regions for coffee cultivation in Minas Gerais have caused interruptions in the grain harvest and quality problems that producers can already notice with the naked eye. Climate variations weigh especially heavily on the south of Minas, one of the most important regions for Arabica coffee in the country.

According to Leonardo Resende, a producer from Varginha, the rains delayed the harvest by 30 days. In the municipality, field work begins in mid-May, but this year, the harvest calendar has already changed.

"In addition to the maturation being delayed a little, with the rains, we have a delay of approximately 30 days in the harvest", he tells CNN Agro. The fruit normally becomes "moldy before drying, when covered to protect from the rain and after processing it becomes stained, damaging the market value", describes the producer.

The rains have not yet stopped the harvest, but when it is not raining, the cloudy weather remains. Along with it, humidity. "Coffee loses its flavor and appearance", highlights Resende.

The coffee grower is a member of Minasul (Cooperativa Agroindustrial do Sul de Minas), an entity that monitors the progress of the harvest in an area of 9,000 coffee producing families and until June 11th the cooperative maintained favorable prospects for the 2026 harvest based on technical visits carried out on farms in the Varginha region.

So far, according to the cooperative, the plants have good load and productive potential, reinforcing the expectation of a voluminous harvest this year. However, the rains change the scenario and leave coffee growers apprehensive about what's coming.

Coffee drying and harvesting - predominantly using machines - are hampered.

El Niño projections also indicate that coffee should be one of the products most sensitive to irregular rainfall that usually occurs from July onwards.

Since May, rains in the region have already signaled alert to the production chain. In municipalities in the south of Minas, such as Campo do Meio, hail damage damaged many small crops and coffee growers estimated a loss of 20% to 30% of local production.

On the other hand, Rabobank highlighted in a report released this Wednesday (17), that the rains were punctual in most of the state and did not compromise the majority of the harvest.

In Guaxupé (MG), the accumulated volume was 21 millimeters in the month, below the historical average of the last five years, of 47 millimeters. In Patrocínio (MG), it rained 17.7 millimeters, compared to an average of 30.4 millimeters, detailed the monthly study by the Dutch bank.

The coffee harvest advanced in all producing regions of Brazil throughout May, favored by weather conditions considered positive for both the Arabica and conilon areas.

According to Rabobank, crop yields remain within normal limits for the period, with no record of relevant problems so far, and the forecast for stable weather to remain in the coming days should continue to support the good pace of work in the field.

In contrast, producers in some municipalities with a coffee economy report concerns about the increase in humidity, which affects the drying of already harvested beans and hinders the selection of beans that will still be removed from the coffee trees.

Harvest pace
According to Cooxupé, the largest coffee cooperative in Latin America, the pace is slower than in 2024, but it increased from one week to the next: until June 5, the removal of beans reached 12% of the entity's area of operation; until June 14, the percentage increased 15.8%.

Despite the evolution of fieldwork, the pace would be better, if it weren't for the rains in some regions of Minas Gerais, as highlighted in the Cooperative's weekly bulletin.

On the other hand, in the area where Expocacer (Cerrado Coffee Growers Cooperative) operates, the arabica harvest evolved between 10% and 15% of the total forecast in the second week of June.

According to the cooperative, by the second week of June, 57% of the fruits were in the cherry stage (57%), reflecting the climatic conditions, in general, conducive to the development of crops.

"The climate favored the filling of grains and the evolution of maturation, supporting good prospects for harvest productivity. The current scenario reinforces favorable prospects for both productivity and quality of coffees produced in the Cerrado Mineiro region", indicates the Expocacer bulletin.

In the 2026/27 harvest, Expocacer projects a harvest of 2.86 million bags of 60 kg of Arabica coffee in its region of coverage, which comprises 82 thousand hectares allocated. The warning, however, remains the climate.

In Brazil, an active El Niño could initially reduce the risk of frost during the winter of 2026, but pose challenges at the end of the year, during the development of the 2027/28 harvest, highlighted the report from consultancy Hedgepoint.

Despite the expectation of a record Brazilian harvest in 2026/27, the climate may limit more pronounced price drops in international markets.

"The possible impacts of El Niño could limit deeper market corrections at the end of the year", said, in a note, Laleska Moda, coffee analyst at the consultancy.

Global effects
At a global level, the risks for coffee in El Niño years are strong. Itaú BBA also highlighted this Wednesday (17), that the greater irregularity of rainfall and increased thermal stress can cause uneven flowering, flower abortion and loss of productivity and quality, both in Brazil and in other large producers such as Colombia and Vietnam.

"In Brazil, the main risk associated with a more intense event is the break in the regular rainfall pattern. Instead of a well-defined transition between the dry period and the return of the rains, between September and October, the scenario tends to be marked by rains concentrated in a few episodes, interspersed with longer periods of drought", characterizes the bank.

This irregularity compromises water predictability, fundamental for coffee, which depends on a well-defined dry period, followed by continuous rain to stimulate and sustain flowering.

The forecast also includes isolated showers at the end of winter that can induce early flower opening, but without a sequence of humidity, these blooms tend to abort or evolve irregularly.

Source: CNN