How the war in Iran has shattered the security image of Gulf locations like Dubai and Qatar - and what it's costing

How the war in Iran shattered the security image of Gulf locations
FADEL SENNA / AFP via Getty Images
Recent decades have seen bombs fall on Lebanon and suicide bombers explode in crowded markets in Iraq, while the self-styled Islamic State kidnapped and beheaded foreign workers in macabre spectacles in Syria.
But Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was in full swing
Rich people from all over the world bought mansions on artificial islands off their coast, toured the Louvre Museum in neighboring Abu Dhabi or went on safaris in the Qatari desert.
In a region shaken by wars, protests and instability, the Persian Gulf countries cultivated for years the image of an oasis of security and prosperity.
Their efforts and advantageous fiscal policies attracted billions of dollars in foreign investment, transforming cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Dhabi (UAE), in addition to Doha (in Qatar), in privileged destinations for multimillionaires and luxury tourism, with international events and congresses.
But this image was shattered on February 28, when attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran brought war to the region.
Tehran responded not only by bombing Israeli cities and American bases, but also Washington's allies in the Gulf. And these monarchies, from one moment to the next, found themselves drawn into an unwanted conflict.
"They tried, at all costs, to dissuade President Trump from undertaking it", explains to BBC News Mundo (the BBC's Spanish service) analyst Anna Jacobs Khalaf, an expert on the Gulf at the European Institute of Peace.
Suddenly, Iranian missiles began to fall next to shopping centers, luxury skyscrapers and ports full of yachts, in front of the horrified looks from people in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman, as well as tens of thousands of tourists and foreign residents.
The war has even reached some of the most luxurious hotels in the world. The remains of an intercepted Iranian drone fell onto Dubai's Burj al Arab. And Fairmont The Palm, on the artificial island of Palm Jumeirah, took a direct hit.
Attacks reported in Gulf States
BBC
On Wednesday (18), Qatar's state oil company said it had suffered "extensive damage" caused by missile attacks on the Ras Laffan industrial complex.
Iran had included the site in a warning that it would take "decisive action" after facilities at its South Pars gas field were hit by Israeli missiles, according to reports.
The consequences are devastating and the unease in the capitals of the Gulf is immense.
A tsunami of cancellations hit the region's rich monarchies, including flights, hotel reservations, congresses and international events, such as the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Formula 1 Grands Prix.
Add to this the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which blocked their fuel exports.
A mirage that becomes undone?
"The Gulf countries worked to form an image of safe havens in the Middle East, but the actions and events of the last week have shaken this image", recognizes professor Badr al Saif, from Kuwait University. He was deputy chief of staff to the country's prime minister.
The region invested in luxury and security. And the region's monarchies (all of them autocrats) invested heavily in surveillance.
These measures kept them safe from terrorism, but also generated persecution of dissidents and anything that could affect their image.
In these three weeks of war, for example, dozens of people were arrested, including foreigners, for publishing videos of Iranian attacks.
In their attempt to attract expatriates, tourists and international investors, conservative Muslim nations created bubbles of permissiveness, although with limits. Alcohol is allowed in certain places, but public demonstrations of homosexuality are prohibited.
All this, added to low or non-existent taxes, has made them immensely popular in recent decades and transformed into an important tourist destination.
But the war is putting all this work to the test.
Dubai Airport dawns empty amid the war in the Middle East
The region's tourist sector alone has been losing around US$600 million (about R$3.15 billion) per day, according to data from the World Travel and Tourism Council, mentioned by the Financial Times newspaper.
The consortium had predicted that tourism would bring US$207 billion (around R$1.1 trillion) to the Gulf States in 2026.
In the week of March 6, there were more than 80,000 cancellations of short-term rentals in Dubai, according to data collected by the AirDNA group, based on reservations made on platforms such as Airbnb and Vrbo.
Flight cancellations also grounded millions of passengers.
In recent decades, the region has become a true international hub for airport connections, through which more than 500,000 passengers pass per day.
Since February 28, at least three airports (Dubai, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi) have suffered impacts from Iranian missiles or drones, causing the cancellation of thousands of flights.
The security image "was partly artificial, but also, in part, it was real, as the Gulf States actually managed to isolate themselves from the worst of regional violence for decades", explains researcher Elham Fakhro, from the Belfar Center at Harvard University's Kennedy School in the United States, to BBC News Mundo.
Regaining the confidence of investors and tourists "is possible", says Fakhro, "but it will depend on how long the conflict lasts". frustration
The war against Iran has made the Gulf countries a target. It is extremely expensive and has generated a sense of anger and frustration among its citizens and governments.
The public figure who perhaps most explicitly criticized Donald Trump's decision to drag them into war was multimillionaire businessman Khalaf Ahmad al Habtoor, from the United Arab Emirates.
"Who gave him the power to drag our region into a war against Iran? And what was he based on to make this dangerous decision?", asked al Habtoor, in a recent and harsh open letter addressed to the American president.
The businessman asked Trump if he had "calculated the collateral damage before pulling the trigger."
"There is a sense of betrayal hanging in the air of the Gulf capitals, but it is unlikely that it will be manifested publicly for some time," explains Elham Fakhro.
The Gulf countries have invested a lot in their relations with Washington. Among other measures, they hosted their military bases, facilitated logistics, committed to making huge investments and assumed the internal political costs of aligning with American regional policy, which is deeply unpopular.
"In return, they expected, at least, to have been consulted before a war that would inevitably turn them into targets. That was not what happened."
"Iranian missiles hit their capitals, airports, oil infrastructures and financial districts, not because of anything they had done, but because of decisions taken in Washington and Tel Aviv", highlights Fakhro.
Researcher Neil Quilliam, from the London-based Chatham House think tank, agrees that, currently, "there is enormous anger" in the Gulf capitals.
But for now, "not much can be done and it is very unlikely that they will express it in any public forum".
This is not the first time that the US has left the Gulf countries aside. In 2015, when the nuclear deal with Iran was signed, "the Gulf countries, which had always demanded to be part of any pact with Tehran, were excluded."
Therefore, this new marginalization "touches a sensitive point for them."
Security strategy
The Persian Gulf monarchies have maintained tense relations with their Persian neighbor since the revolution that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlevi (1919-1980) and proclaimed the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
Iran is not an Arab country. It has an immense Shiite majority, while the Gulf countries are mostly Sunni.
And, since the revolution, the Islamic Republic has positioned itself as the great enemy of the United States in the region, with whom the Arab monarchies are allies.
For this reason, the Gulf countries have established their security around this link with Washington, especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
"They all sought, in some way, something more or less equivalent to Article 5 of NATO [according to which, if a member is attacked, the others will come to its defense], with the United States committing to defend them", explains Quilliam.
The background of Kuwait in 1990, invaded by Saddam Hussein's Iraq (1937-2006) and liberated by a coalition led by Washington, served as a point of reference.
But, when Tehran bombed Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure in 2019, or Israel killed Hamas leaders in Qatar's capital, Doha, in a bombing raid in 2025, the United States stood idly by.
The feeling that Washington would not come to its rescue grew and some of these countries began to build their own defense industry, diversifying their defensive links.
Iran also attacked US military bases in the Gulf, such as the one housing the US Fifth Fleet in Manama, the capital of Qatar. Bahrain
Anadolu via Getty Images
The Gulf countries established their security around three interrelated premises, explains Elham Fakhro.
According to one of them, the United States would act as their main guarantee against external threats. Furthermore, detente with Iran would reduce the risk of direct confrontation; and, for some, establishing selective ties with Israel would bring strategic benefits.
This policy "was intended to allow Gulf governments to maintain the balance between Washington, Tehran and Tel Aviv, without having to choose between them", according to the researcher.
But the war in Iran exposed the limits of this alliance.
Some countries may decide to diversify their military collaborations with other countries, such as Turkey or Pakistan.
But, according to Quilliam, "it will take a long time for them to move away from the United States", as many of these training, weapons systems or aviation contracts are valid for at least 20 years.
Sword of Damocles
What solution do the Gulf countries have today for a war they did not choose?
Experts believe that there is no easy solution. But the damage will be less the sooner the conflict ends.
A short-term ceasefire would allow recovery to begin, according to Elkam Fakhro. But a prolonged war would worsen the damage month by month, accelerating the departure of expatriate workers and the flight of capital on which economies like Dubai's depend.
And the damage doesn't stop there. Neil Quilliam is of the opinion that the economic bleeding caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf countries can only be stopped in a sustainable way with a ceasefire, never by force, as Donald Trump intends.
In any case, the losses will be enormous. Some countries have already been forced to interrupt oil production and resuming it to pre-war levels could take at least five or six months.
And, even if the war ended today, the threat of the Iranian regime, whose collapse apparently will not occur at this moment, would continue to hang over the Gulf, like a sword of Damocles.
"In two months from now, Israel could say that it has detected some movement in the nuclear or ballistic missile program and attack again", calculates the Chatham researcher House. "And then the Iranians will counterattack."
As Anna Jacobs Khalaf, from the European Institute of Peace, highlights, the Gulf countries "cannot change geography." Iran reestablished diplomatic relations, with mediation from China.
"The only lasting solution is for the Gulf States to build their own relations with Iran, on their own terms", concludes Khalaf.

Source: G1