Government calculates impact of R$22.4 billion with renegotiation of agricultural debts in 2027; goal of accounts in the blue would be more difficult

The Ministry of Finance estimated this Wednesday (17) that the rural debt renegotiation project, approved by the Senate, will imply a new credit line of R$ 200 billion, considering debts subject to classification.
The benefits will be for producers affected by extreme weather events or economic impacts resulting from international geopolitical conflicts. (understand how it will work)
As the proposal has undergone changes in the Senate, the text will have to undergo new deliberation by deputies before being sanctioned by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
"Based on the volume of resources for the new credit line of R$ 200 billion and the assumptions above, the total cost for the Union, with an impact on the primary surplus due to the equalization of interest and charges, could reach R$ 139.8 billion over the 13 years, with R$ 22.4 billion in 2027", added the economic area, in a press release.
➡With the primary impact estimated by the government of R$ 22.4 billion in 2027, the return of the accounts to the black would be even more difficult next year (see below in this report).
Estimates from the Parliamentary Front for Agricultural Support (FPA) point to a smaller impact, of R$ 65 billion in 13 years; being R$5 billion in the first year and falling to up to R$500 million in the last year. The portfolio to be renegotiated is around R$100 billion.
On the agenda in recent months, the issue has generated tensions between the government and the National Congress. Because it has a billion-dollar impact on public accounts, the project is treated as a "bomb agenda" by the economic area.
More difficult target
In the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for the year 2027, sent in April to the National Congress, the government proposed a surplus target for its accounts for next year.
The LDO is the rule that defines the government's goals and priorities for the following year. It needs to be approved by Congress and guides the preparation of the Annual Budget Law (LOA), which represents the Budget for the year. The proposal still needs to be approved by the Legislature.
If the fiscal objective is achieved, if the difference between what is intended to be collected and spent is positive, it will be the first result in the black since 2022.
The proposed target is a positive result of 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the equivalent of R$73.2 billion, with a tolerance band of 0.25 percentage points up or down - that is, the surplus can vary between R$ 36.6 billion and R$ 109.8 billion.
In addition, R$ 65.7 billion in government spending on court orders (judicial sentences) and projects in the area of defense, health and education may be left out of the rule.
In practice, therefore, the government will be able to have a primary deficit of up to R$ 29.1 billion without the target being formally missed.
But the economic team projects a positive result of R$ 8 billion in 2027 because it does not provide for the full reduction of court orders in the fiscal target.
➡With the reduction of the primary surplus by R$ 22.4 billion in 2027, as predicted by the economic area due to the renegotiation of the agricultural debt, the return of the government's accounts to the black would become even more difficult. There would also be pressure on ministries' spending limits, which could result in blocking of resources to ministries over the next year.
Finance wants to negotiate
Earlier, this Wednesday, the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, stated, during a public hearing in the Chamber of Deputies, that the government "will find a solution together with congress to extend a hand and help Brazilian agribusiness."
"My concern is getting the dose of aid wrong. authorization and the government extends a hand to those who don't need it, I am open to closing an agreement within the proposed framework", added the Minister of Finance, at the time.
➡He pointed out that more than 90% of Brazilian agribusiness does not have a debt problem, and said that it is important to look at default using financial resources, that is, without implying additional pressure on the ministries' primary expenses.

Source: G1