Financial market assesses more limited impact with new pricing

The new proposal for a 25% tax from the United States to Brazil, presented last Tuesday (2), is seen by the financial market with more political and legal caution than as an immediate economic shock.

According to the USTR (United States Trade Representative), the tariffs were proposed based on the North American terms of Section 301, which allows the country to investigate and retaliate against other nations against trade practices considered unfair. In the case of Brazil, policies on digital commerce and illegal deforestation were highlighted as subject to "corrective measures".

The US government has until July 15 to decide on the definition and application of the proposal, which will undergo public consultations and hearings before approval.

Although the possibility of a new tariff has rekindled concerns about the bilateral relationship, analysts consulted by CNN Money estimate that the impact tends to be smaller than that observed in the first tariff in 2025, mainly because strategic sectors of the export agenda were left out of the measures.

Excluded products include beef, coffee, aircraft and aeronautical components, oil, minerals and various agribusiness items.

The preservation of these segments significantly reduces the effects on GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the trade balance and Brazilian companies with strong exposure to the American market.

The main difference in relation to the previous episode is that the country has already accumulated experience in dealing with this type of trade barrier, according to Tania Gofredo, chief economist at GEP Brasil.

For the expert, the shock of 2025 was more intense because it took governments, companies and investors by surprise. This time, the market better understands the mechanisms for adapting and diversifying exports.

"The Brazilian trade balance ended up decreasing in relation to last year's volume. With the tariffs [from the previous year], there was a reduction in the volume exported to the United States, because these products were destined for other markets. In my view, the outlook is not worse, because Brazil will find these paths again", explains Gofredo.

Despite the perception that the economic impacts may be limited, the market is showing concern about the more structured nature of the new American offensive.

Unlike the first tariff, which was widely challenged in court and ended up being reversed, the new proposal is based on section 301, a traditional instrument of United States trade policy.

For Rogério Freitas, head of investments at ASA, this increases the risk of the measures remaining in place and increases uncertainty for Brazilian exporting companies.

According to the economist, the market interprets the new process as more institutionalized and, therefore, more difficult to reverse quickly through judicial or diplomatic means.

In the same vein, Cassio Viana de Jesus, Director of Investments and Business at Pilar Capital, assesses that the main concern is not the size of the tariff, but the attempt to rebuild trade barriers on a more solid legal basis.

"Protectionist tariffs act as a negative supply shock, and the market tends to demand a higher risk premium as long as there is no clarity on the final scope of the measures, the exceptions and the responses of the affected countries", says the executive.

The assessment is also shared by Fábio Murad, partner and founder of Ipê Avaliações, who estimates that the market sees the new pricing more as a problem of predictability than of taxation itself.

"The investor does not just look at how much will be charged at the border, but at the companies' ability to plan investments, contracts, margins and exports. When this predictability decreases, the market demands more premium to assume Brazil risk", he states.

In the financial market, the first impacts tend to appear precisely in this perception of risk.

Analysts point out that the uncertainty regarding tariffs could put pressure on the exchange rate, future interest rates and the shares of companies more dependent on exports to the United States, especially in the industrial, machinery, steel, wood, furniture and components sectors.

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On the other hand, some experts note that the current scenario also brings compensating factors.

Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, recalls that the new round of tariffs was accompanied by a broad list of exceptions, unlike what happened in 2025.

In addition, the United States recently announced a reduction in tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper, a move that benefits Brazilian companies linked to mining and steel.

"So, that's why there was good news in the same week that there was bad news. It wasn't exactly that negative effect. Before the announcement of this tariff, the US announced a reduction in tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper, because aluminum and copper prices are at historic highs and are expected to continue rising," Cruz said.

The chief strategist and founding partner of Stratton Capital, Marcelo Cabral, states that the market interpreted the new American initiative as a sign of deterioration in relations between Brasília and Washington.

In his view, the investigation conducted by the US and the tight deadline for negotiations until mid-July indicate a more assertive stance from the American administration.

"The risk outlook is getting worse, yes, but I still wouldn't say that we are facing something very catastrophic. The market will wait to see how things evolve, but it is undoubtedly bad news for Brazilian assets", says the economist.

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Source: CNN