FecomercioSP: Retail stock index reaches highest level since 2025
The Inventory Index (IE) for São Paulo's retail trade registered stability in June, reaching 109.0 points, reported FecomercioSP. Compared to June 2025, the indicator showed a drop of 2%.
The share of companies that said they had more than adequate merchandise rose for the third consecutive month, rising from 25.4% in May to 25.8% in June, the highest level since April 2025 and 1.6 percentage points above that observed in June last year.
The index is prepared monthly by the entity and varies from 0 (total inadequacy) to 200 points (total adequacy).
Despite the stable reading of the indicator, FecomercioSP points to a change in businesspeople's perception of the composition of stocks.
"Although this proportion remains below the historical average, the warning signal is on as the excess of goods on the shelves is a concern in times of high interest rates", say the technicians at FecomercioSP.
The entity notes that the increase may reflect both preparation for relevant commemorative dates, such as Mother's Day and Valentine's Day, and indicate a stronger slowdown in sales.
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On the other hand, the share of companies that reported a lack of goods on the shelves fell for the fifth consecutive month, from 19.7% in May to 19.3% in June.
Also according to FecomercioSP, this component had been reflecting the difficulty of replacement since last year, possibly associated with access to working capital and credit from suppliers. In June, it was 0.8 percentage points below the figure recorded in the same month of 2025.
The proportion of companies with adequate inventories remained stable at 54.1%, but 1.4 percentage points below June last year.
FecomercioSP assesses that the latest editions of the survey show difficulties for retailers in balancing inventories: after a period in which end-of-year sales reduced the percentage of companies with excess and increased the perception of shortages, the most recent movement was reversed, with an increase in the group that points to high inventories.
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Source: CNN