Family crisis exposes anticipated dispute over Bolsonaro's political estate
The outbreak of the public crisis between former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) exposes a larger dispute already underway: who will have the final say within Bolsonarism and who will inherit the political estate of Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Michelle's strategy is to position herself as the member of the family most faithful to Jair Bolsonaro's guidelines, including the attempt to form a group of senators loyal to her. And there are those who bet that the former first lady's gaze is also in 2030, in a post-Lula (PT) scenario.
In Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-campaign, the order is to contain damage. The senator's initial reaction was to try to ignore the controversy. On Wednesday night (24), after Michelle's videos, the senator went so far as to say that, on "Brazil's game day, nothing and no one" would bother him.
The crisis, however, gained traction and since then Flávio has used social media to try to contain the wear and tear caused by his own stepmother's attacks.
"At no time did I offend or intend to offend Michelle. If I did so at any point, once again, I apologize", declared Flávio.
On the other side, Michelle also sought to lower the temperature this Thursday (25), claiming there was no "fight or competition". The more peaceful narrative, however, contrasts with the weight of the bomb dropped the previous day, when the videos published by the former first lady also brought a message that was difficult to ignore: she still hasn't said everything she could say.
The crossfire divided Bolsonarism and, now, allies on both sides are making calculations about who will benefit from the clash.
For those around the senator, this is not the first nor will it be the last family crisis. They assess that Michelle is weakened politically by the negative repercussions of dividing the right and by not being able, at first, to reverse the alliances of the PL that she contested in Ceará.
The defenders of the former first lady see another balance. For this group, Michelle positioned herself as an inescapable piece in the succession of Bolsonarism, reinforced her political weight and presented herself as a voice with the capacity to mobilize within the right.
Whatever path is adopted, the fissure still raises questions for Bolsonarists behind the scenes. For example, if Jair Bolsonaro's authority is no longer enough to end the group's own internal conflicts.
The possible inability to contain current divergences also raises doubts about how the Bolsonaro family and its allies would be able to remain united in a possible return to power, if the right wing wins the next presidential contests.
Despite the risk of fragmentation, the focus around Flávio Bolsonaro is on pragmatism. The calculation is that the senator's voters are, above all, guided by anti-Lula sentiment, which would guarantee votes up front on the basis of polarization. Therefore, the group's expectation is that the Bolsonarist base will remain intact at the polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro reacts to the crisis with Michelle as just a "scratch" | CNN PRIME TIME
Source: CNN