Experts predict positive El Niño for Argentine harvest

While intense El Niño conditions could harm harvests across much of the world, the weather phenomenon will likely boost agricultural production in Argentina in the second half of the year, climate experts said.

On Thursday, the United States Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño conditions will intensify as the second half of 2026 progresses.

The El Niño phenomenon causes ocean waters to warm in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to a reduction in rainfall in much of Asia and Australia and raising fears about dwindling global food supplies and rising prices due to droughts.

But in Argentina, one of the main exporters of soybeans, corn and wheat, the phenomenon increases the frequency and intensity of rain, which generally favors crop development, climate experts said.

"The 2026/27 harvest will be entirely marked by the presence of El Niño and will be a positive factor", said German Heinzenknecht, meteorologist at the Consultoria Argentina de Climatologia Aplicada.

The last intense El Niño occurred in the 2015/16 cycle, when Argentina recorded the second largest soybean harvest in its history, with 59.1 million metric tons, and the average corn productivity was 7% higher than the average of the last 10 years, according to official data.

"In the agricultural heartland, an area that does not suffer from flooding because it has good water drainage, El Niño produces very good yields," said climate expert Eduardo Sierra.

Corn planting in Argentina will begin in September and soybean planting in October.

The country's producers are already sowing the 2026/27 wheat harvest, which could reach 20 million tons, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange, which would be the third largest cereal harvest for Argentina.

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Source: CNN