Expert: Political scenario makes voters tolerate corruption
Political polarization and disbelief in investigative institutions have made Brazilian voters increasingly tolerant of corruption scandals involving their preferred candidates. The assessment is by Leonardo Barreto, political scientist and partner at the Think Policy consultancy, to Hora H, in which he commented on the results of the Atlas/Bloomberg survey on Flávio Bolsonaro, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jaques Wagner.
According to Barreto, the current scenario differs significantly from the past, when similar crises had greater power to harm electoral campaigns. "People are more accepting of corruption on their preferred side, scandals on their preferred side, because they think this is the lesser evil, considering that the other side could take advantage of this to fight for and win power", said the expert.
High rejection and disbelief in institutions
Barreto highlighted that the two main leaders in the presidential dispute accumulate rejection rates above 50%. For the analyst, this situation creates a favorable circumstance for each electorate to be tolerant in relation to their own political field. In addition to polarization, the political scientist pointed out a second reason for the normalization of scandals: distrust in investigative bodies.
"The investigation bodies themselves have people involved in scandals," he said, adding that presidents of the Chamber and Senate bar CPIs, that ministers of the Federal Supreme Court appear to be involved through contracts with those being investigated, and that the minister responsible for an investigation even banned contact with the director of the Federal Police. "This creates a feeling of hopelessness and the idea that there is nowhere to escape," he concluded.
The Jaques Wagner case and Lula's strategy
When specifically analyzing the situation of Jaques Wagner, Barreto assessed that the main risk lies in the deepening of investigations and a possible placement of the senator in the dock.
However, the analyst considered that Lula minimizes this possibility, at least in the short term. For Barreto, Lula's public appearance alongside Wagner may have a strategic component: reinforcing the discourse of political persecution that Lula himself has created since leaving prison to run for president.
"This presence cannot send any message other than a challenge to the investigative bodies", he stated.
Flávio Bolsonaro and the divisions in Bolsonaroism
With regard to Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, Barreto identified signs of an internal rebellion in the field that he calls Bolsonaroism.
The analyst assessed as mistaken the perception that only anti-PTism would be enough to keep the electorate united. According to him, the lack of political administration of the various factions that make up this field was evident in Michelle Bolsonaro's speech, which brought to light a feminist agenda and the dissatisfaction of evangelical groups that were not consulted in the process of building the ticket.
"It seems to me that Flávio's internal policy is lacking to understand the divisions that exist within Bolsonarism and forge these alliances", said Barreto.
The expert concluded that, although Flávio Bolsonaro has a high floor of votes, this floor could become a ceiling, making his candidacy insufficient. In this context, Barreto assessed that the objective conditions are being created for a third candidacy to gain ground from the official start of the campaign in August.
"We are creating conditions for the two main candidates to talk more about their limits than their possibilities, and this opens a window for Brazilians to consider other names", he stated.
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Source: CNN