Eurasia: Public security could drive "blue wave" in Latin America

Public security is the main factor behind the so-called "blue wave" in Latin America, according to an analysis by Christopher Garman, executive director of Eurasia Group, in an interview with WW. The comment was made in the context of the meeting between Flávio Bolsonaro and Javier Milei, in Buenos Aires.

Garman assessed that the successive victories of the right in the region reflect, to a large extent, the growing concern of public opinion with crime.

"The biggest concern in most Latin American countries is public security," he said. "It has to do with the growth of organized crime, the pattern of crime that we are seeing, cell phone theft."

Conservative candidates and the security issue
According to Garman, conservative candidates tend to be more competitive precisely on this topic, which would explain part of the advance of the right on the continent.

However, he considered that there is a second hypothesis for these victories: "Most of the right-wing victories come from governments that were being weakened with demands that are very difficult to meet and contemplate."

For him, just as the left surfed a wave of disenchantment four years ago, now the right would be doing the same.

Brazil in a different position from other countries
Garman highlighted that Brazil occupies an intermediate position in this scenario. "Brazil finds itself in the middle," he said, adding that Lula has higher approval ratings than the left-wing governments that were defeated in other countries in the region.

Still, the analyst recognized that the issue of public security also applies to the Brazilian context.

For Garman, the result of the elections in Brazil will be decisive in consolidating or relativizing the "blue wave" narrative.

"If in Brazil President Lula prevails in his re-election, then half of Latin America's GDP will be governed by the left, because the two main countries, Mexico and Brazil, will be governed by the left", he stated.

As a result, according to him, the concept of a conservative wave would need to be put into perspective given the economic weight of these two nations.

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Source: CNN