End of the 'chocolate flavor'? Drop in the price of cocoa can make products cheaper and change recipes

Miniature chocolate filled with Reese's peanut butter.
Mike Blake/Reuters
After a year of smaller bars, more wafers and alternatives with less cocoa, manufacturers are starting to return to traditional chocolate recipes.
This change, driven by a drop of almost 70% in cocoa futures contracts compared to the records at the end of 2024, could lead to lower prices for consumers, a recovery in demand and a reduction in the use of low-cocoa alternatives, which are not always considered chocolate.
American manufacturer Hershey's, for example, announced plans to increase the cocoa content in products that today function as alternatives to chocolate, called by the company "chocolate candy".
The change comes after the grandson of the founder of Reese's criticized the company for changes in the formulation of the brand's iconic products. As a result, the expectation is that both Hershey's and Reese's items will return to their original recipes starting next year.
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Sector representatives and experts also warn that other companies should follow suit.
"With current cocoa prices, it makes perfect sense to return to consuming real chocolate," independent consultant Roger Bradshaw told Reuters.
Snacks manufacturer Mondelez did not respond to inquiries. requests for comment on their recipes, while Nestlé and Ferrero did not comment.
Drop in the price of cocoa
After almost tripling and surpassing US$ 12 thousand (R$ 60.5 thousand) per ton in 2024, driven by climate problems and diseases in crops, cocoa prices led manufacturers to reduce the size of bars, add more wafers, fruits and nuts and launch alternatives to chocolate.
Companies also reduced stocks, increased prices and invested more in products such as ChoViva, a cocoa-free alternative to chocolate made with sunflower seeds and oats. Developed by German startup Planet A Foods, the product is sold in partnership with Barry Callebaut, the largest chocolate manufacturer and cocoa processor in the world.
This movement has dropped demand for cocoa and, according to experts, helped cause a drop of around 70% in the price of the bean compared to the peaks of the end of 2024.
Demand could reach the lowest level in nine years in the 12 months up to September, Steve Wateridge, a cocoa expert, told Reuters. The drop in prices, however, should lead to a recovery from the second half of the year, he added.
"It is likely that all the factors that led us to such low prices will reverse themselves," Wateridge said.
Lower prices, higher demand
It could take around 10 months for changes in the price of cocoa to reach consumers, as manufacturers tend to set prices in advance and maintain high inventories.
So supermarkets and other buyers have been pressuring manufacturers to reduce prices since mid 2025 - and some have already given in.
Mondelez said last month it had reduced some chocolate prices in Europe and was starting to see an increase in sales volume.
Barry Callebaut - whose ingredients are present in about a quarter of the world's chocolates - expects 1% to 5% growth in sales volume in the six months to August, year-on-year, according to Reuters calculations.
The company, which supplies chocolate to brands such as KitKat (Nestlé) and Magnum ice cream (Unilever), states that, at current cocoa prices, producing chocolate may be cheaper than manufacturing alternatives that use vegetable fat in place of cocoa butter.
This means that "some customers are returning to consuming chocolate", said executive director Hein Schumacher in April, without mentioning the names of the companies involved.
There are also legislative initiatives that encourage the return to cocoa cultivation in some regions.
In Brazil, the world's sixth largest consumer of chocolate per capita, A law was passed earlier this month that requires all products labeled as dark chocolate to contain at least 35% cocoa.
The measure brings Brazil closer to markets such as Europe and North America, by tightening its cocoa content requirements. in prices.
However, the recovery should take time until volumes return to levels before the price rise.
"I predict it will take 2.5 years to get back to the pre-2023/24 level" in terms of demand, said a veteran cocoa consultant and former trader who preferred not to be named.
According to the expert, this is due to trends that, although small in isolation, have a relevant effect as a whole. These include Gen Z's greater openness to products like cocoa-free chocolate and the impact of weight-loss medications on eating habits.
However, with chocolate makers fearing that cocoa prices will rise again, some alternatives are likely to remain.
This is because these products remain profitable in the mass market, noted Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel.
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*With reporting from the agency from Reuters news.

Source: G1